NSW the key state to revive Labor’s fortunes

Labor has had a dark decade in NSW since then premier Kristina Keneally’s 2011 election loss. Picture: Bianca De Marchi

It is impossible to dump all the blame on Kristina Keneally for Labor’s catastrophic 2011 election defeat in NSW.

Discontent with Labor was well under way under premier Morris Iemma and had continued unabated under Nathan Rees. By the time the poisoned chalice landed in Keneally’s lap all hope for a Labor victory had been dashed. The only thing to do was to wait and see what remained after the carnage.

A decade on, it has been tough to keep NSW Labor’s “light on the hill” glowing. In recent years the task has fallen to Michael Daley, Jodi McKay. Both tried hard but failed to make any serious dent in Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s parliamentary majority. Now it’s Chris Minns’ turn.

Labor must win a swag of seats at the next state election even if it fails to win. If not, the risk is that Labor in NSW will appear largely irrelevant — and that will only hurt the party nationally.

People like winners and Labor very rarely looks like it will win federal elections despite the seeming ease with which it wins so many state ballots.

Only NSW, South Australia and Tasmania are in Liberal hands and the incumbents in the other states all appear set for long terms in office.

But for Labor, there will be a continued imbalance until it can win a NSW election.

Elsewhere, on the left of the political spectrum, the Greens are failing on two fronts. Their vote sticks permanently on 10 per cent and their preferences almost always favour Labor by an 80/20 ratio. It will be just about impossible to increase their vote unless they are prepared to jettison their extremist spending policies, which would bankrupt this nation in a flash. Occasionally they threaten to derail Labor by withholding their preferences and have opted on a few occasions to produce two-sided how-to-vote guides. This tactic has precious little effect because the preferences flow to Labor remains close to that magic figure of 80 per cent.

In a number of countries, experiments with major parties teaming up with the Greens have generally ended in tears. Left-wing people can usually grasp the need to compromise but the truly hard left won’t have a bar of dealing their way into government by compromising on policies.

At the heart of politics is the need to compromise, even when government is in the hands of one party. Within that party there will still be disagreements and you either split or find a way to work together.

There were some mighty arguments between individuals in the Hawke and Keating cabinets but the basic unity of purpose of all concerned meant that the public never knew of them.

That is the secret of good government – argument without rancour.