Strap in for a wild ride, as Tassie election forecast to go down to the wire

Tasmanian Labor Leader Rebecca White and Premier Jeremy Rockliff before the People's Forum at the Town Hall, Hobart. Picture: Chris Kidd

Unless the major parties succeed in scaring voters back to their folds at the 11th hour, this election could get very messy, even by Tassie standards.

All signs point to a hung parliament, namely: 167 candidates vying for 35 seats; an increase in the size of the assembly meaning a lower seat quota; a plethora of ­independents and minor parties; and an electorate jaded with the major parties. 

An analysis of the four opinion polls during the campaign suggests the incumbent Liberals will achieve 13 to 15 seats in the 35-seat assembly – short of the 18 required for a majority.

Labor – with a primary vote stuck in the 20s despite widespread dissatisfaction over failing public services – would win nine to 12 seats; the Greens two to five, the Jacqui Lambie Network one to four and independents three to five.

However, polling is just polling and rarely tells the full story under Hare Clark’s multi-member ­electorate system of proportional representation, where the final seats in each electorate are determined in an often hard-to-predict preference carve-up.

As well, all the polling publicly released as of late Friday was from the early or middle parts of a 5½-week campaign, ­dominated by ­duelling policies on health, housing and cost-of -living relief.

This makes it hard to gauge how many disillusioned voters who initially “parked” their votes with minor parties and independents may have swung back to the major parties as the reality of minority government drew closer.

Both Jeremy Rockliff – the ­nation’s last Liberal premier – and Labor leader Rebecca White have pushed hard in the last days of campaigning for voters to end their flirtation with the political potpourri.

Even allowing for a late swing back to the established outfits, however, few pundits believe anyone can win a majority.

The Liberals are likely to get closest to doing so, most likely placing them in the box seat to try to form an alliance or at least test their support on the floor of the ­assembly.

Labor cannot be ruled out, however, given the Greens’ stated desire to “change the government” and that the two most likely independents to get elected – David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston – are left leaning.

Consider also that the Liberals have alienated Jacqui Lambie via ruthless targeting and alleged dirty tricks throughout the ­campaign. This could mean Labor, even with significantly fewer seats than the Liberals, may be able to demonstrate a clearer path to confidence and supply.

Rockliff on Friday warned of this outcome again in his last pitch to voters, pointing out the Liberals won the most seats or votes in 1989 and 2010 but still watched helplessly as Labor governed with the Greens.

With White ruling out formal power-sharing deals, that appears less likely, but there’s nothing to stop her accepting unconditional offers of support and trying to spruik them to the Governor.

Don’t expect any wild celebrations on Saturday night, in any event. By evening’s end, we will know where most of the primary votes landed and who won the most seats.

But unless there has been a late swing, we won’t know who will be able to form government and a good chunk of seats – those determined in the preference carve-up – will be impossible to pick.

Predicting a Hare Clark election based on primary votes is like judging a novel by the blurb on the back cover – fraught with ­danger.

There is a 10-day wait until Easter Tuesday (April 2) for the last postal votes to be received ­before exact quotas can be calculated (a seat requiring 12.5 per cent of the formal vote) and the vital preference carve-up occurs.

That means we probably won’t know much more until April 5 or 6, at the earliest, and the final ­result may not be declared until April 10.

Minority negotiations may be under way before this point, but could hinge on those final seats.