Joe Biden’s State of the Union address was a solid attempt to sell the achievements of his presidency, but it is likely to fall on deaf ears in a country that has become deeply sceptical of his leadership.
At this, the halfway point of his presidency, Biden has chalked up a far larger and more significant series of legislative wins than his predecessor Donald Trump, including on infrastructure, climate, healthcare and tax, but he has failed to translate these into greater popularity.
Instead polls show that 62 per cent of Americans don’t think Biden has achieved much as president and his approval ratings are mired at around 43 per cent. Recent polls show that even a majority of Democrats don’t want the 80 year old Biden to run for a second term in 2024.
The problem for Biden is that all of his legislative wins are now behind him. With Republicans now controlling the House, he is unlikely to pass any significant reforms through Congress for the rest of his presidency, so this is his high-water mark.
Biden used his address, in part, to plead with Republicans to work with him to continue to pass reforms on the economy, healthcare etc. But at the same time, Biden seemed to enjoy using his speech to admonish Republicans for their stance on social security and healthcare. He is likely to have rankled many Republicans with this speech.
Any sense of bipartisanship in Congress has weakened over the past 12 months and there is little appetite for it among Republicans who, frankly, can barely unite their own party.
On issues directly relevant to Australia, such as national security, Biden delivered tough words on China, knowing that he is currently under attack from Republicans who say he took too long to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon which passed over the US mainland last week.
Biden said that while the US ‘seeks competition not conflict’ with Beijing he made “no apologies’ for ‘investing to make America stronger.’
“If China threatens our sovereignty we will act to protect our country and we did,” Biden said, leading some in the chamber to chant ‘USA, USA.”
On Ukraine, the president pledged continued US political and military support to help Kyiv overcome Russian forces ‘for as long as it takes’ in a war that has become a battle of attrition in that country’s southeast. But Biden knows that some key Republicans are becoming increasingly sceptical about the notion of limitless US support for Ukraine. His speech was aimed at trying to underline the importance, both to Republicans and to the American public, of the US long-term commitment to Ukraine.
Biden tried to portray the US economy as heading for a soft landing rather than a recession, pointing to stellar job numbers which have seen unemployment fall to just 3.4 per cent, the lowest since May 1969.
But Biden’s problem is that too many Americans don’t feel prosperous, they are spooked by persistent rising prices and fears of a major economic slowdown. Biden’s speech recognised this and, taking a leaf out of Trump’s ‘forgotten people,’ Biden spoke of “people that have been forgotten … left behind, or treated like they’re invisible.”
Biden’s best hope is that inflation recedes quickly and interest rates come down, persuading people to give him more credit for his economic management. But Biden’s biggest challenge has little to do with the economy or security. It is the perception that he is an uninspiring leader, past his prime and increasingly unable to garner the popularity needed to win a second term. This speech was a valiant attempt to present a more inspiring vision for the rest of his presidency, but will people buy it? Don’t bet on it.
More Coverage
Work needed on PS productivity
While our political leaders no doubt are focused on the potential for interest rate relief before the federal election, they should instead be preoccupied with how to lift productivity and grow the economy.
Secrecy has been a big part of problem in terror fight
Much of the concern about the rise of anti-Semitic actions is due to too much secrecy and lack of demonstrated concern, for which politicians and police must share responsibility.