Joe Biden has finally been extricated from his chair. Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee and Donald Trump’s national unity tour is over.
Like the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan ordered by Biden, the 46th President had been intransigent, stubborn and wilfully disorganised. Worse, his reluctance to accept reality on this occasion saw him, to quote Paul Keating, “Araldited to his chair”.
It would take a person of real consequence to extricate Biden from his chair and the presidential race. Everyone from Barack Obama down had tried, to no effect. Perhaps Obama’s words in private to Biden in 2016, when the 44th president persuaded his vice-president not to run that year, were still ringing in Biden’s ears. It was Obama who created a match race for the presidency between Trump and the only viable candidate he could conceivably beat at the time, Hillary Clinton.
The Hollywood push led by George Clooney saw the presidential backside stay stuck fast to the leather upholstery. Democrat Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and house minority leader Hakeem Jeffries had put the pressure on Biden, but no cigar. In the end it would come to an 84-year-old grandmother, former house Speaker and congresswoman, Nancy Pelosi. Less than a day after what was described by Democratic National Committee insiders as a “cordial” Saturday afternoon chat between Pelosi and Biden, Biden’s announcement finally came.
Pelosi’s approach might have been forceful or something similar to Gareth Evans’s admonition to Bob Hawke after Keating had come for him one final time: “Pull out, digger, the dogs are pissing on your swag.” Either way, it worked.
And just to show she was a steely-eyed realist, Pelosi then paid tribute to the man she had stopped from running for another term as president, with blood still dripping from her hands. “His legacy of vision, values and leadership make him one of the most consequential presidents in American history,” she said on Sunday. “With love and gratitude to President Biden for always believing in the promise of America and giving people the opportunity to reach their fulfilment.”
Politics is not for the squeamish. No sane person could possibly imagine a Biden second term and Trump was on a roll to win bigly, as he might put it, in November while the Democrats faced the prospect of down-ballot disasters, including significant losses in the house. Where Obama and others have been diminished by Biden’s obstinacy, Pelosi showed herself to be a politician of substance and consequence. The job, however, was only half done.
What was missing from Pelosi’s statement notably was an endorsement of Kamala Harris. It has since come but only, one suspects, because Harris’s candidacy is now a fait accompli. The Democrats were quick to launch Harris’s credentials within minutes of Biden’s withdrawal. It was prepared and planned. It amounts to a profound tactical failure and it may cost the Democrats dearly come November.
The great contest of ideas that might have come from an open convention in Chicago on August 19 has been all but smothered by what appears to be a dirty little backroom deal. Instead the Biden vacuum has been filled by the Vice-President because there was no plan B in place.
Obama, much diminished by his failure to do what Pelosi had done, offered a statement, part tribute, part call for an open convention in Chicago on August 19. “We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead. But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.”
There was no endorsement of Harris and Obama has been tight-lipped since Biden announced his withdrawal on X while in quarantine for Covid.
An open convention would have been messy but it would have been eye-catching, created interest and started conversations across the country. It might have propelled the winner to the White House on the back of support from the rank and file of the party.
As Harris emerged in a feast of fist pumping and bad dancing, the GOP attack ads were not far away. She carries all of the manifest policy failures of the Biden administration on inflation, especially associated with the rising cost of food as well as the hottest policy ticket item on the agenda in the presidential race, immigration and border control.
While Biden had next to no chance of winning, Harris’s anointment offers only a marginally better chance of success. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday put Harris two points ahead of Trump while others have her trailing. Hypothetical head-to-head polling between Harris and Trump puts her somewhere between two points behind or four in front of Biden against Trump. As an average, her chances look to be only marginally better than Biden’s. A 20 per cent chance of winning has become, perhaps, 30 per cent. Given the tumultuous events of the past month, the attempted assassination of the former 45th president and the bloody backroom business of Biden’s enforced withdrawal, polling, often inaccurate in the US, will be difficult to read for at least the next month.
Harris now has secured the support of enough delegates to win the nomination, which almost certainly means another highly stage-managed Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The party that was supposed to be the smart one has failed to give voters what they deserve, preferring some unpersuasive theatre that may not pass muster with American voters.
More Coverage
Join the conversation
Our tax woes need to be fixed. Here are my two solutions
Unless commodities boom again, big election promises will not be sustainable if most international companies operating in Australia continue to not pay proper company tax.
Read more
Let’s face it, Melbourne is turning into a flat and miserable city
Melbourne’s CBD is struggling to regain its pre-pandemic vibrancy. Small business laments the slow return of workers to offices, underscored by a state government that allows its public servants to continue working-from-home.
Read more