Scott Morrison has a lot of balls in the air, not to mention a pandemic and rare recession

PM Scott Morrison is a man with a lot on his plate. Picture: Sean Davey.

An economy in ruins. A budget being framed in the twilight zone. Premiers staging insolent rebellions. Vulnerable Australians dy­ing because of government neg­lect. A punch-up with China over sovereignty with whiffs of wedges and politics. Ministers under siege. A looming reshuffle threatening to create more enemies than friends. A tiny reminder from voters via Newspoll of just how fickle they can be, how ephemeral popularity is and how the crisis that enabled the Prime Minister to rebuild his reputation could just as easily trash it again. A man most at ease exercising complete control now surrounded by uncertainty and turbulence.

Welcome to Scott Morrison’s nightmares. He is the first prime minister in a century to preside over a pandemic, the first in 30 years to preside over a recession sparked by the largest quarterly fall in growth recorded and the steepest annual drop since the end of World War II. None of that is his fault, but he is the one who has to work out how to get out of it. If he gets that right, the other things won’t matter as much at the next election. But they do matter.

Morrison has little or no authority over the national cabinet. He struggles to persuade premiers and chief ministers to his point of view. They agree when it suits, ignore him when it doesn’t. They have no incentive to open up their borders or their economies, thanks to him. He unwittingly has contributed to his own torment.

The billions in stimulus he has provided through JobKeeper and JobSeeker, which numb the pain of the recession, closed borders and a comatose economy for five million Australians, help fund the defiance and maintains the popularity of state and territory leaders.

On top of that he lacks Bob Hawke’s consensus-building skills and John Howard’s patient dedication to corralling cats. He has no such problems with his cabinet, where he reigns supreme, yet soon he will have to reshape a team not overburdened with talent. Morrison had hoped for a minimalist reshuffle after Mathias Cormann announced his retirement. That was never going to happen. There are always ripple effects and, in light of developments since, expect a Circus Maximus spectacle in the lead-up to Christmas.

There are four Liberal ministers with uncertain futures: Mich­ael Sukkar, Richard Colbeck, Angus Taylor and David Coleman. The Deputy Prime Minister, Nationals leader Michael McCormack, remains under constant threat. Peter Dutton is not planning to follow Cormann, the man he describes as a brother, out the door. Dutton has told associates he is definitely going around again. True, politicians have made such declarations only to decide suddenly that they need to spend more time with their families, but Dutton appears serious.

Although Dutton has been flying under the radar recently, he remains leader of the party’s conservative wing and the most prominent Queenslander. His state still could save Morrison’s bacon next time, particularly if the Victorian vipers ensure their state remains a toxic zone for state and federal Liberals.

Dutton is happy to stay in home affairs, but if Morrison wants to move him to promote his good friend Stuart Robert into the portfolio, then Dutton would like defence. Naturally, Linda Reynolds is not happy with this idea, so the least problematic solution is to leave them where they are.

If McCormack survives, he will face pressure to show he can stand up to Morrison by insisting the trade portfolio, which Simon Birmingham is expected to vacate for finance when Cormann goes, is returned to the Nationals. McCormack has infrastructure, David Littleproud agriculture, Keith Pitt resources, and Darren Chester veterans affairs.

If McCormack is deposed after the Queensland election, the new leader — with the main contenders now Pitt and Littleproud — will change the line-up. He will be expected to lift the party’s profile and not roll over to the Liberals. Barnaby Joyce or Matt Canavan will push to be reinstated to the frontbench.

Morrison should dump Sukkar to make way for one of the bright young things from Victoria — Tim Wilson, James Paterson and Sarah Henderson — who will devote more time to the vital assistant Treasurer portfolio than to party politicking. For his own sake, and for the government’s future wellbeing, Josh Frydenberg should encourage Morrison to replace Sukkar.

The problem with Sukkar types is that they get distracted from the jobs they are paid to do by extra-curricular activities such as trying to change the character of the Liberal Party from a broad church to a home for the religious right. They threaten the preselections of those seeking to exercise free will on issues such as euthanasia, same-sex marriage, climate change or leadership. If they prevail they will make the party unelectable, and during their many battles they drive away worthy people.

Morrison is standing by Colbeck, but if the aged-care disasters continue to take a toll on the government and the Prime Minister’s standing he will sacrifice the junior minister. He also has stood with Taylor, who remains damaged goods following allegations his office had doctored a document spearing Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore.

Immigration Minister Coleman has been absent all year for personal reasons and, according to a memo circulated inside his department, will stay on leave until the end of the year, when a decision will be made about his future.

Birmingham also will take over Cormann’s slot as government leader in the Senate, so his role of deputy leader in the Senate will be up for grabs. Morrison could then promote a woman, most likely the Foreign Minister, Marise Payne, into the leadership group.

West Australian MP Ben Morton has been joined to Morrison’s hip since Morrison became leader. The Prime Minister trusts Morton’s judgment and advice absolutely. When Morrison’s leadership was in danger of crumpling during the bushfires, it was Morton who flew to his side to steer him through.

Morton deserves to be in cabinet, but that would probably mean giving up his role as prime ministerial stabiliser and chief fixer, so it could be a junior ministry or nothing until after the election. When it comes to Morrison’s political wellbeing, he is indispensable.

Even so, you will struggle to find anyone inside Labor who underestimates Morrison. The word most use to describe him is “formidable”. But there are chinks and Labor is getting better at exposing and exploiting them.