Red Bridge poll suggests men, not women, the bigger problem for Peter Dutton and Coalition
A Red Bridge poll asked those surveyed whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: The Coalition led by Peter Dutton is ready for government.
The results differentiated between low-level agreement or disagreement and strongly agreeing or strongly disagreeing. It also broke the data down by gender, age, education and income.
While the sorts of trends you might expect revealed themselves when it comes to age, income and education, the gender differences were counterintuitive. Or, at the very least they certainly ran counter to the conventional wisdom among commentators.
Only 20 per cent of women strongly disagreed that Dutton and his Coalition is ready for government. Daily political observers would have assumed a higher figure. Those women unsure with 18 months to go before the next election is due numbered 26 per cent. A relatively high undecided vote.
Among men, 33 per cent strongly disagree that the Opposition and its leader are ready to govern, with only 14 per cent unsure.
In other words, Dutton and the Coalition have a bigger problem with men not women, completely contrasting with perceptions. More men have already made up their minds one way or the other, with more women yet to make their minds up. The female vote remains up in the air for the opposition if it can tailor policies favouring women voters it just might be able to make history and return to government after one term.
No first term government has lost a re-election attempt since 1931. It is a historical precedent Anthony Albanese won’t want to break. I am certainly not making a prediction!
So how does Dutton win over those undecided female voters who could represent the difference between victory and defeat?
The conventional wisdom (most commentators entrenched within the Canberra bubble) probably think gender quotas and social policy scripts women might like is the obvious answer. Policy scripts the Coalition is unlikely to embrace. They would be wrong.
While some of us would like to see gender quotas to boost female representation in Coalition parliamentary ranks – as good for representational theory if nothing else – the issue isn’t a vote changer. Insiders feel strongly about it, outsiders do not.
The best way to appeal to undecided voters, including the large swath of undecided female voters, is with policy alternatives that will insulate the population against the damage of persistently high interest rates and inflation. Ways to keep people in work, women in particular. We know from the crunched numbers that when unemployment goes up it often hits the part time and casual workforce harder. Women are disproportionately employed part time and casually.
Labor has its own problems in the current economic climate. It is tethered to an industrial relations policy that discourages employers employing more people. The policy might shore up the rights of those currently in employment, but when jobs are lost in tough economic times it will contribute to such Australians being out of work for longer.
With a year-and-a-half to go before the next election is due the political debate will be all about the economy, and which side of the major party divide voters trust to manage it in the years ahead. That’s the case for men and women. It would be a mistake for Labor to take the female vote for granted just as the Coalition shouldn’t assume women have deserted them.
In fact, men not women are disproportionately doubtful the Coalition is ready for a return to government, and perhaps that is the Coalition’s barrier to victory.
While most people missed the significance of the Red Bridge survey’s outcomes, you can bet party strategists noticed the gender divide. You can equally bet they will do more research off the back of it to shape what comes next.
Peter van Onselen is professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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