Rebuilding trust Morrison’s first step to recovery

Scott Morrison in Canberra last week. Picture: Martin Ollman

Who would have thought Scott Morrison would become the longest-serving prime minister since John Howard? Nobody. But that is the historic milestone Morrison reaches this month. It is an achievement for Morrison but a poor reflection on our political culture and a reminder of the revolving-door prime ministership over the past decade.

Tuesday represents a moment of sweet satisfaction for Morrison as he surpasses Malcolm Turnbull for time in office. There will not be a celebration. But the Prime Minister and his staff are aware of the date and its significance. Turnbull has been an unremitting critic of Morrison, often unfairly. Morrison can take some joy in lasting longer than Turnbull.

He may have overtaken Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Turnbull for time in office, but that does not mean Morrison’s prime ministership has been a success. That judgment will only come when he departs politics, and it will take years after that to fully adjudicate his performance. For now, though, the nation is looking for leadership and Morrison is not providing it.

Morrison’s three-year prime ministership has been the equivalent of a carnival roller coaster. He became the third prime minister in three years when he succeeded Turnbull in 2018. The party he inherited was divided, and had been so since Turnbull had toppled Abbott. The bitterness was palpable. Hardly anybody gave Morrison a chance to beat Bill Shorten. But he pulled off a miracle election victory in 2019.

Then came the bushfires over the summer of 2019-20. As anxiety rose throughout Australia, and lives, homes and businesses were lost, Morrison went on holiday to Hawaii. It was among the worst judgment calls any prime minister has made. He initially ignored the outrage, then defended the family holiday and then apologised for it. Again, he was written off.

But Morrison learned from these mistakes. When the Covid-19 pandemic arrived, he transformed into a focused, reassuring and determined leader. At a time of national and international calamity, the voters liked what they saw. His standing recovered so much that he became a very popular Prime Minister, his satisfaction rating reaching 68 per cent four times in 2020. This exceeded Howard’s highest rating of 66 per cent, according to Newspoll.

However, these numbers began to slide by February 2021. The turnaround was again swift. Morrison’s net satisfaction rating – approval minus disapproval – fell from 41 per cent in June 2020 to 6 per cent by July 2021. Yet Morrison maintains a leadership edge over Anthony Albanese, with a 2:1 preferred prime minister rating. The Labor leader’s net approval is worse, at minus-8 per cent.

Most voters are not happy with Morrison’s management of the pandemic. The slow vaccine rollout and quarantine failures are viewed as the chief reasons for state lockdowns, and they blame Morrison for this. Voters are frustrated, even angry, about confusing messages on vaccines, the delayed plan for opening up the nation, and the timelines of providing financial support for individuals and businesses.

Premiers, especially Gladys Berejiklian and Daniel Andrews, have made their share of blunders. But voters are looking for national leadership, and they expect more from Morrison. The premiers have pointed the finger at the federal government over vaccines and the failure to establish dedicated quarantine facilities, and this has struck a chord with voters.

These are legitimate criticisms. The vaccine rollout has been mismanaged. Australia failed to secure enough supply. Timelines have been missed. The aged-care vaccination program was botched. Inconsistent messaging has contributed to vaccine hesitancy. Advertising has been ineffective. Morrison repeatedly said “it is not a race” but now embraces the analogy, saying the “gold medal run” on vaccines is under way.

The Prime Minister is being reassessed by voters. The collapse in Morrison’s poll numbers, along with that of the Coalition, indicate a protest vote. The loss of support for Morrison has not shifted to increased support for Albanese. The loss of support for the Coalition has largely transferred to minor parties and independents. The task for Morrison, yet again, is to win these voters back.

Right now, Morrison is a leader with a leadership problem. The prime task is to rebuild trust with voters so they have faith in his ability to lead the nation through this critical phase of the pandemic. He needs to convey empathy and understanding, rather than appear overly defensive and reluctant to admit mistakes. It is quite possible vaccination rates will reach 60-70 per cent for adults by the end of the year. That will change perceptions of his management of the pandemic.

Many of the prime ministers ahead of Morrison on the longevity league table, such as Howard, Paul Keating, Bob Hawke and Malcolm Fraser, were behind in the polls but rebuilt their political standing and were re-elected. They recognised they had a problem and changed course. They focused on governing, sharpened political strategies and changed how they communicated.

The next few months will be critical for the Coalition’s re-election. The vaccine rollout remains, as ever, the key factor. There is also a risk, as Josh Frydenberg conceded to me last week, that the economy could again dip into recession. And there are plenty of other things that can go wrong between now and May 2022, when the election is due.

Morrison has been, like Howard, a comeback politician. But politics is harder these days. Low trust in politicians means voters are less forgiving of mistakes. Above all, what matters is results, not marketing spin or blame-shifting. Morrison must get the country vaccinated and the borders reopened. And he needs a plan for post-pandemic Australia. The ultimate verdict on his prime ministership depends on it.