Reassuring words from Lloyd Austin but mystery remains over how we acquire submarines

Richard Marles with United States Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin. Picture: DoD.

The AUKUS security pact with the US and UK was a huge win for Australia, foreshadowing our very own, state of the art nuclear powered submarine fleet and the opportunity to obtain, and even help develop, the most advanced American military technology, as the two allies seek to counter the growing Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific.

But reality is yet to match the alluring rhetoric almost 15 months after the AUKUS agreement emerged in September last year.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin reassuringly said we shouldn’t worry about the looming capability gap as our Collins class submarines become obsolete, but how and at what price Australia will acquire our own submarines remains a mystery, albeit one, we’re promised, will be revealed when Australia unveils its defence review early next year.

Richard Marles and Penny Wong with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin. Picture: DoD.

The US military industrial complex, under ever greater demands around the world from Ukraine to the Pacific, is already flat out building new submarines for the US navy, which naturally will have first claim to new boats.

“There’s been a lot of talk about well, the Australians would just buy a US submarine. That’s not going to happen,” Rob Wittman, a senior Republican on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, told Breaking Defence, a US defence publication, over the weekend at a California defence conference.

“I just don’t see how we’re going to build a submarine and sell it to Australia during that time,” he added, a reminder of the competition Australia’s call on US goodwill will face within the vast US administration.

Defence Minister Richard Marles was right to stress that Australia will need to develop the capability to build nuclear powered submarines – a herculean task, especially given South Australia’s track record – “as quickly as we possibly can”.

Since they began in 1985 the annual AUSMIN meetings between Australian and American foreign and defence ministers have grown to produce and encompass a mind-boggling array of ‘initiatives’ and acronyms.

A small sample of those in this year’s joint communique included commitments to the Pacific Islands Forum 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, the Partners in the Blue Pacific Initiative, the Quad-supported Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, the Blue Dot Network, the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, the Net-Zero Technology Acceleration Partnership and, of course, the IPEF: the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

But it’s the new defence and arrangements that always receive the most scrutiny each year, which, amid the sea of acronyms, were relatively meagre this year.

Collins class submarine HMAS Rankin. Picture: Getty Images.

The two allies once again agreed to increase US troop rotations in Australia. And Japan will be invited to take part in Australia-US “force posture initiatives”, which could see Japanese military in Australia, a stark reminder of just how much the world has changed in 80 years.

Hopes the US would promise to pare back the thicket of rules and regulations that prevent its defence industry from sharing it's the most advanced military technology with Australia, didn’t eventuate this time around.

In a lighter moment in the 35-minute press conference, Mr Marles declared the US’s new prototype B21 stealth bombers, which Mr Austin unveiled in California last week, a “very cool” piece of military hardware.

“We did not discuss the sale of the B21 to Australia, I’d like to get the first B21 tested and fully outfitted before we have those kinds of discussions,” Mr Austin said with a smile.

Indeed, if we get the submarines on time, on budget, it will be a minor miracle.