A Labor victory in Queensland will not worry Scott Morrison or the federal Liberal National Party team.
The electoral power of pandemic incumbency has proven considerable in recent elections, where governments have succeeded in suppressing COVID-19.
WA Premier Mark McGowan, who will go to an election on March 13, will not budge from his parochial approach.
The LNP didn’t expect to win the election. The mathematical equation was too difficult. They were up against a popular leader, were too far behind and couldn’t win back enough Queenslanders who parked their vote with One Nation and the minor parties in 2017.
A winning scenario involved the LNP claiming a swathe of regional Queensland seats and holding-on in south east Queensland. While a record number of pre-poll and postal votes will need to be counted, the LNP will fail in securing majority government.
Putting aside LNP infighting, the pandemic cruelled any chance for Deb Frecklington to wrestle back momentum and cut-through a media cycle saturated by border closures, outbreaks and Victoria’s second wave.
The Morrison government’s JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments also acted as shields for Annastacia Palaszczuk, hiding the true extent of the economic tsunami facing Queensland’s tourism and hospitality sectors. Jobs figures in the state, especially in the regions, were dismal before the pandemic. Under the Palaszczuk government, jobs figures have consistently been inflated by surges in the Queensland public service.
Both of the major parties expected the One Nation vote would tank. But while Labor strategists suggested One Nation voters would shift to the LNP, the Queensland election yet again proved that assumption to be false.
A surging Greens vote in south east Queensland will also be a concern to both the ALP and LNP. Demographics in traditional conservative belts, namely the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, have shifted in recent years. Over time, the ALP faces the threat of losing more inner-city electorates. But the LNP will also closely monitor the impact of those changing demographics, as the power of votes from retirees and older Australians diminishes in historically safe seats.
If Palaszczuk was forced to negotiate with the Greens to form government, Liberal Party federal director Andrew Hirst would have had a field day.
Ahead of the Queensland election, senior federal ALP sources were having nightmares over a scenario where Palaszczuk formed a minority government with the Greens.
“It can’t happen. That would be an absolute disaster for us,” a senior federal ALP source told The Australian.
The ALP’s 30-year dominance in Queensland politics acts in a perverse way for federal Labor. Senior ALP strategists say that has been a major factor in failing to turnaround dismal results recorded in the state since the 2013 federal election.
The Prime Minister’s victory last year came on the back of a thumping Queensland result, which saw only one ALP senator elected.
Labor’s performance in regional Queensland, while holding-up better than ALP campaign operatives predicted, remains a concern.
Morrison held-on to seats the LNP had no right to win and Anthony Albanese will need to bridge the divide to have any chance of pulling back support in Queensland.
The internal contest inside Labor – led by Joel Fitzgibbon’s crusade to win back blue collar voters and support mainstream energy and environmental policies – will continue as metropolitan MPs grow increasingly concerned by the march of the Greens in inner-city electorates.
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Read related topics:Queensland Election