Putin the new rocket man, but we can all stay calm

The missile announcement ‘strengthens Putin’s case for altering the constitutional bar on serving more than two successive presidential terms’. Picture: AFP

Russia’s announcement that it has deployed a hypersonic missile is a propaganda victory for President Vladimir Putin, notwithstanding doubts as to whether it’s the decisive strategic development Moscow claims.

The familiar maxim applies: “Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks.” Nevertheless, hardheads in the US aren’t panicking and presidential candidates aren’t hyping a “missile gap”, as John Kennedy did during the 1960 campaign.

Domestically, it strengthens Putin’s case for altering the constitutional bar on serving more than two successive presidential terms.

Internationally, it is a reminder that Russia, despite its economic status, remains a global power. This will be on public display if Putin and US President Donald Trump sign the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) this year.

It’s an interesting time for Amanda Gorely, Australia’s recently appointed inaugural Ambassador for Arms Control and Counter-Proliferation.

Although the ideological pull of Russia in liberal democracies is not what it was in the mid-20th century, its appeal now cuts across left and right. For some on the left, it is simply based on visceral anti-Americanism. For some on the right, Putin’s nationalism, strong stance against Islamic terrorism, social conservatism and development of natural resources have provided allure, as has the ­potential of Russia acting as a ­bulwark against Chinese power.

It’s important to note that, despite the Trump administration’s political controversies, the Pentagon takes a hawkish view of Russia. This view would harden were Russia and China to deepen strategic ties.

The expansion of NATO — for example, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1999; the Baltic states in 2004 — wounded Russian pride and was a breach, in some Russian eyes, of an implicit understanding with the US during the phasing out of the USSR.

So too was president George W Bush’s support for Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO.

These Russian grievances have sympathy among some respectable, mainstream observers on the centre-left and centre-right.

In some of those countries, Putin has exploited unease with multiculturalism, immigration and emerging social movements and provided support to populist nationalist movements. In an echo of the “culture wars” in liberal democracies, Putin believes modern liberalism has “come into conflict with the interests of the majority of the population” and “outlived its purpose”.

He believes Russian unity and the country’s sense of national purpose is a key advantage over the West. In that regard, his co-­option of the Russian Orthodox Church has been critical in achieving respectability at home and reaching out to ethnic Russians as he exerts influence in other former Soviet countries.

However, there may come a time when the Orthodox Church loses patience with Putin’s repression and disregard for the rule of law. He would be wise to be mindful of the role the Catholic Church played, along with Solidarity, in bringing communism to an end in Poland.

The collapse of the USSR and its Eastern Bloc satellites diminished the perceived threat to Australia from Russia.

In the five years from 1991, ASIO’s budget was reduced by about 20 per cent. And with the threat of a US-Russia nuclear exchange diminishing, so too did the Russian threat to Australian-hosted joint facilities.

But the Russian spying threat never went away, and has grown markedly over the past decade, especially in the area of cyber- espionage where Australia identifies Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as the greatest perpetrators.

Australia suspended uranium sales to Russia in 2014, following the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, the Russian intervention in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

In South Asia and Southeast Asia, Russia has increased military exports and strengthened military co-operation, notably with Vietnam and its traditional partner, India.

The upgrade of Russia’s military will continue over the next decade, with significant implications for Australia’s strategic outlook as Russia continues its pivot to the region. Meanwhile, France is trying to bring Russia into the European tent as a counter to China’s influence.

As for France and other European nations, Putin will attempt to exploit division with the US over recent developments in the Middle East.

Next May marks the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe, during which Russia will understandably broadcast its decisive monumental human sacrifice in that conflict as part of its “grand alliance” with the US and the UK.

It may also reflect on Australia’s “sheepskins for Russia” campaign, when Australia sent tens of thousands of coats to assist the Red Army during the severe Russian winters. But this is unlikely to sway the views of Putin’s Russia.

Mick McNeill is a former senior political analyst at the US embassy in Canberra. These views are his own.