Prospect of WA Liberal collapse should set alarm bells ringing

Prime Minister Scott Morrison at Collaroy Surf Life Saving Club in Sydney on Saturday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jenny Evans

The alarm bells will be starting to ring beyond Canberra for the Morrison government with the WA Coalition headed toward one of the worst defeats for a party in Australia’s political history.

If today’s Newspoll is replicated on March 13, the WA State division of the Liberal party will be decimated.

A primary vote of 23 per cent for either of the major parties at an election would be without precedent.

And there is no reason to believe the numbers aren’t right. A private poll leaked last week suggested popular support at around 24 per cent.

The only contemporary comparison for such a collapse in favourability would be Labor’s result in the 2011 NSW State election when it was thrown from office after 16 year of government.

Then premier, and now NSW Senator Kristina Keneally, led a scandal ridden Labor Party to the worst defeat of any government, state or federal, since the Second World War.

Labor’s primary vote set a new record at 25.5 per cent.

The Coalition in WA, albeit coming from Opposition, is set to write a new record into the political annals.

It threatens to be one of the greatest debacles for the Liberal party in its history and will again confirm the broader destruction of provincial opposition parties wrought by the politics of the pandemic.

As a validation of the power of incumbency during a crisis, it should — in theory — be of comfort for the Morrison government at a national level.

But following the underperformance of the LNP in the Queensland State election, the dysfunction that has plunged the Victorian state division into an irrelevancy and now the South Australia Liberals being forced into minority government this week, Scott Morrison will be asking at what point does it all start to affect the Coalition federally.

Electorally, it is arguable, it will have no bearing whatsoever.

But if things are so weak at the divisional level, across three States, it may well have an effect structurally.

Morrison’s own NSW division remains the standout exception for the Coalition at a state level, but presents other challenges as the federal and NSW Liberals compete for brand differentiation on issues such as climate change response.

The undeniable problem for the federal Liberal party and for Morrison will be the collapse of the State divisions machinery and morale, which it will need to draw on for a federal campaign within the next 12 months.

The demoralisation of the state divisions will undoubtedly have an impact on the ability to raise money for one thing.

While a defeat for the Coalition in WA was never a question, the sheer scale of the loss should be of grave concern for the Liberal Party nationally.