Optimism not enough to get voice over the line

The Indigenous voice to parliament is a modest and mature proposal with strong popular support.

The Albanese government has every reason to hope Labor will win its first referendum in more than 75 years.

The Indigenous voice to parliament is a modest and mature proposal with strong popular support. Its Yes campaign also is well organised with deep community roots and a powerful network of political, corporate, union and civil society groups. This harks back to Australia’s most successful referendum in 1967, when more than 90 per cent of Australians voted to remove discriminatory references to Aborig­inal peoples from the Constitu­tion

It is a mistake, though, to conflate hope with confidence. Every referendum has been initiated with great expectations, yet all but a few have crashed and burned.

There is no sure thing when it comes to a referendum proposal. Since 1901 only eight out of 44 proposals have succeeded, with not one success since 1977. Many proposals were initiated with apparently strong community support but received less than 50 per cent of the vote on polling day.

Governments have failed to win referendums because of complacency and poor management. Too often, leaders have assumed that people will see the wisdom in their proposal and vote accordingly. Some leaders even have lost interest in their own referendum as they have been distracted by other issues. The result has been lacklustre campaigns defeated by a determined No case.

Campaigners for a No case often have succeeded despite majority popular support for the reform. Our last referendum in 1999 is a good example. On polling day there was clear evidence that most Australians wanted the nation to become a republic. However, most cast a No vote because they had doubts about the model, including the possibility that it contained a flaw in how the president might be dismissed.

Campaigners have long recognised that Australians gravitate towards a No vote when faced with doubt. The challenge for a Yes case is that doubt is the normal by-product of opposing views, especially when Australians know so little about their Constitution. No assumptions should be made that popular support for a proposal will be maintained until referendum day. Erosion of support is much more likely. Voting intentions can be accurately gauged only when an idea is seriously challenged by a strong counter campaign.

Campaigns for a No case often have been led by members of the opposition. This reflects the strong incentive for opposition parties to run against a government proposal. A referendum presents an opportunity for opposition members to gain national attention and damage the government. It is why oppositions have treated referendums akin to a by-election, and so have campaigned on issues related to the government’s performance rather than just on the proposal.

Even Robert Menzies, Australia’s most electorally successful prime minister, failed to win a referendum. He was left disillusioned after his unsuccessful attempt in 1951 to give parliament the power to ban communism. He failed despite early polling showing 80 per cent of Australians supported his reform. Menzies attributed his loss to a “wicked and unscrupulous” campaign led by opposition leader HV Evatt. He saw the result as “further proof of the fact, demonstrated in every previous referendum in our history, that no amendment to the commonwealth Constitution can be carried if the parliamentary opposition is against it”.

Menzies’ observation that a referendum was doomed unless it had bipartisan support proved true in 1951 but it might not be the case today. Much has changed in the intervening years, and more than two decades have passed since Australia voted in its last national referendum in 1999. It is dangerous to make assumptions based on this past experience.

What is clear is that the chances of the voice being supported at a referendum will be lower if the opposition mounts a No campaign. Some Australians will take their lead from this to vote No. Others will be influenced by the uncertainty that such a contest will create. Past opposition members, such as Peter Reith in 1988, have proved to be formidable opponents because of their capacity to sow doubt. Many Australians have voted No as a result even where they felt well disposed towards the change.

The best way to head off this risk to the voice is to take the time and adopt the processes needed to win as much support as possible from across the political spectrum. This requires a careful, well-constructed political strategy at odds with how Labor has run many of its past referendums.

Given this, it is encouraging that Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney says she will not be rushed. A referendum on the voice should be held in the first term of the Albanese government, but only when the strongest platform has been laid for its success.

George Williams is a deputy vice-chancellor and professor of law at the University of NSW. He is an author of People Power: The History and Future of the Referendum in Australia.