Why would Nick Xenophon move to South Australian seat

Senator Nick Xenophon with Senate colleague Jacqui Lambie. Picture Kym Smith

Nick Xenophon has some of the best political radar in the business. That is why his move from the Senate to the South Australian parliament is an upheaval for everyone to watch.

Xenophon has seen the shift in political mood in his home state and has found a perfect moment to exploit the change. His personal power is so great he can make himself the kingmaker after the South Australian election in March. Perhaps, one day, he might even try to become premier.

Voters will be tempted to seek a change from South Australian premier Jay Weatherill after 15 years of Labor rule, yet they may be reluctant to throw their support behind Liberal leader Steven Marshall. Now they have a serious third group with a leader they have known for years.

Xenophon has made it clear he will not serve in state cabinet if his bloc ends up deciding who forms government. He has also warned Liberal and Labor against doing preference deals that try to shut him out of the race. Those who want to negotiate with him will have to handle him with care before and after polling day.

Why move? The burdens in federal parliament have taken their toll on Xenophon. He made a name for himself with stunts, especially in his earlier years when he was best known for his anti-pokies campaign, but seem to be wearied by constant negotiations.

This was a product of his success, as he became the key player in so many crossbench discussions, and it was a situation of his own making, given he loves the limelight, but it seemed to become more of a curse than a blessing.

Xenophon always found a way to be the last vote at the table in any negotiation over controversial bills, helping him extract the best deal and present himself to voters as the voice of common sense. The criticism of him by fellow senators, like One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts, is proof of this skill. To be blunt, his colleagues have always been a jealous of his success.