Why the Xenophon move is terrible news

South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill, left, with Nick Xenophon.

Nick Xenophon’s announcement is terrible news for South Australia, mainly because his move has every chance of being successful.

Xenophon’s standing in SA is so strong — after years of clever politicking as the anti-politician politician — that he is likely to win the eastern suburbs seat of Hartley and possibly have a handful of lower house running mates elected with him under the SA Best brand.

Here is a bloke who has dabbled in energy policy in SA for two decades while its Labor government, encouraged by Coalition and Labor federal policy, has turned the state’s energy system into a running joke — the nation’s most expensive and unreliable electricity network.

Here is a bloke who came into politics to tackle poker machines yet when he entered the state parliament there were about 9000 machines in the state and there are about 13,000 now.

Since he switched to Canberra, Xenophon has played himself into a range of issues, particularly defence projects and River Murray entitlements. It is not clear whether he has had any success on these issues as his appeals for industry assistance and water rights have been echoed most of the time by both major parties.

His main success has been at building a brand. And his brand is based on the message that the major parties are rubbish. His pitch has been helped substantially by the fact that for much of this period the major parties have, in fact, been rubbish.

The trouble is that he offers no governing alternative. He has been an irritant in the Senate, like many others, using his protest vote mandate to negotiate on a range of issues and claim his moments in the spotlight. But there has never been any coherence; any plan.

Before last year’s federal election he refused to say which major party he would back to form government even though he ran candidates in the lower house and Senate. If the Liberals had won just one less seat he would have been one of the people deciding who formed government.

He must be placed under sustained pressure now to say who he would back to form government in SA.

The reason his switch back to state politics is bad for the state is because the state is meandering along in a state of slow, grinding crisis. Its power issues are a massive disincentive to investment. It has the largest public sector per capita on the mainland. It usually tops the unemployment figures. It is reliant on federal fiscal subsidies and a never-ending hand-out mentality for major projects, especially in defence.

Labor has failed the state for more than a decade. Disgracefully unfair electoral boundaries mean Labor stayed in office even though it lost the popular vote in 2014 by 47 per cent to 53 per cent (and the state’s constitution dictates boundaries should be drawn to deliver government to the party winning 50 per cent plus one).

Fair boundaries have finally been drawn so that next year’s election will be the first on an even basis for 30 years. Labor Premier Jay Weatherill therefore starts from behind. The state needs a fresh start with a new government given a mandate to cut costs, encourage investment and enliven the state. Sure the Liberal Leader Steven Marshall has not set the world on fire but a change is desperately needed.

But Xenophon’s protest movement could see him win the balance of power. On past form there is no way of knowing what he would do with that crucial authority.

We might expect a Xenophon bloc would try to form a coalition government with Labor or the Liberals but he insists he would not accept a cabinet position with either. This means he wants to duck the responsibilities of governing but is a very strong chance to be in the position of deciding who will govern; and being able to dictate policies and decisions from outside. For these reasons he must declare his intentions now - be honest with South Australians on who he would install in government. He should also present detailed policy positions.

On the evidence of the past there is nothing to suggest Xenophon’s team would improve government in the state. In fact we could expect governance to become more difficult, with an even greater inclination to constantly demand interventions and largesse from Canberra.

Xenophon is very good at what he does — tapping into people’s grievances to maximise a protest vote. The trouble is this is the last thing SA needs right now. The state needs a clear and distinct change in direction and, if it is not asking too much, perhaps something approaching good government.

*Chris Kenny was chief of staff to former SA Liberal premier Rob Kerin in 2002