The Liberal Party butchered its chance at a once-in-100-year outcome in the electorate of Eden-Monaro, yet somehow that failure is all the fault of the Deputy NSW Premier and state Nationals leader John Barilaro.
I respectfully disagree.
Yes, he was interested in running for the seat as a National. If he had done so and won he’d have helped the Coalition increase its slender majority in the House of Representatives. But the Liberals butchered that opportunity when Andrew Constance subsequently said that he would also run, thus risking splitting the vote between two popular state MPs from the area, not to mention costing the NSW Premier two of her senior ministers and forcing two by-elections at the state level if they both decided to run.
Barilaro did the right thing and pulled out. He was angry and someone leaked his texts expressing that anger. Who wouldn’t be?
Unfortunately Constance then also pulled out, leaving the Liberals with a second-rate candidate and the Nationals with only unviable options to choose from to seriously challenge for the seat.
Constance flipping and flopping around like a fish out of water wrecked the Coalition’s chances in the seat before the campaign even started. He’s a better individual to blame for the failure on Saturday than Barilaro.
All of this happened because of a lack of direction and leadership from the PM and the Deputy PM. Morrison, in fairness, had bigger fish to fry, dealing with the pandemic. He can be forgiven.
Michael McCormack, however, just didn’t want Barilaro in Canberra, lest Barilaro’s arrival tipped the balance against him and damaged McCormack’s chances of retaining enough Nationals support in the months ahead to hold onto his job.
Yes, governments don’t tend to win by-elections off oppositions. We know that. It hasn’t happened since the last time Australia was caught in the midst of a global pandemic 100 years ago. But the fact it did happen then, in a climate similar to now, and the fact that Scott Morrison is so popular right now for his handling of the COVID crisis, all adds up to this being a Liberal failure (including that of Constance). Not one that should be heaped on Barilaro and no one else.
Liberals underestimated the power of the preference arrangement the Shooters Party made with Labor. It tipped the seat to Labor. This was another failure not of Barilaro’s making.
The Nationals maintained roughly the same vote and preference flow that it did at the general election. It therefore can’t be blamed for the loss.
Liberals lost the seat because they picked the same dud candidate who lost the general election, notwithstanding her bizarre views on climate change and bushfire recovery. She was kept under lock and key for much of the campaign in sharp contrast to the Labor candidate, who was hand picked by Anthony Albanese. He found her because he knew he needed her. The contrast in candidate selection is another failure which Barilaro can’t be blamed for.
Constance mucked everyone around – Liberals and Barilaro. If any individual should have the blame pointed their way it is him, not Barilaro. If any National needs to be included in the blame game, it’s McCormack, not Barilaro.
Incidentally, you have to love the irony of the Liberals now trying to run twin arguments that this by-election was a disaster for Albanese at the same time as point blame at a National for the disaster he allegedly caused for the conservatives. Good luck squaring that circle.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University
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