Labor should have had Eden-Monaro in the bag

It may be a tad premature, and voting is extremely close, but the Liberal candidate in the Eden Monaro by-election is already acting like the winner.

Whichever ways the vote goes, the Liberals will be counting this as a victory. For someone who entered the race somewhat late, Fiona Kotvojs certainly made up lost ground in a hurry. The post-election Labor function was a downbeat affair. If your supporters are sitting there slowly sipping on their beers and making polite conversation you know something is not quite right. When these affairs are raucous you can smell the victory from a mile away. Labor’s rank-and-file could not hide their disappointment. Richard Marles, forever the strategist, was decidedly downbeat about Labor’s prospects right from the first time the cameras were pointed towards him. He lowered expectations from the get-go.

This should have been a comfortable Labor victory. The usual anti-government swing of four per cent should have seen Labor across the line by 10pm. There was, however, very little that was normal about this by election. The two candidates from the major parties were both successful women. They were articulate and had a far better knowledge of their party’s policies than many of the candidates I have seen over the last half a century. They did not have to turn towards their party minders before answering a question. They both had a confidence more befitting of far more experienced politicians.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Liberal candidate for Eden-Monaro Fiona Kotvojs out and about last week. Picture: Sean Daveuy.

Put simply unless and until Labor can find a way to attack Morrison’s personal standing, an even longer time on the Opposition benches beckons. If Morrison has an Achilles’ heel, they had better find it because he will soon be seen as unbeatable. When that happens the rank-and-file supporters can lose heart hence the need for speed in finding a weakness. He is also not bound to see out a full term and the prospect of him going early is a scary proposition for Labor. The advantages of incumbency are never so great than they are at election time. The Prime Minister chooses the time to give his team their maximum advantage.

The Liberal Party will not make the next election a contest between the two parties. They will put maximum focus on Anthony Albanese because Morrison is extremely popular. It would not matter who leads Labor during Morrison’s leadership as long as it turns out to be. That is provided you don’t make a mistake. Of course, if you don’t do anything the mistakes are few and far between. An international downturn might turn the tables and some economists believe that a major hiccup is due in the relatively near future. Morrison happens to be a particularly good bloke. The flaws will not be found in him, they will have to be found in his policies and he has so few of those with which to find fault. He is personally bullet proof and so politically bland that he is hard to criticise on that front as well.

For Albanese the road to victory is a hard one, but he is a hard man and that contest will be fascinating.