The defeat of the Morrison government seemed like rock bottom for Liberals. Then came Labor’s return to power in NSW, sweeping all mainland state and territory governments and cementing its dominance. But the loss of the Aston by-election has shaken the Liberal Party to its core.
The Liberal Party is experiencing an existential crisis. There is no other way to put it. This is not a pendulum-swinging moment where inevitably voters will again put their faith in the party and return the many seats it has lost at state and federal elections across the past decade.
It is a political statistic now so well known that it is quoted by the resident galah in every pet shop: no government has won a seat from the opposition since 1920. The loss of Aston is an alarm-ringing moment for the Liberal Party, now reduced to holding just two federal seats in metropolitan Melbourne. Aston should wake the Liberal Party out of its torpor.
But the party has become complacent, indolent and lethargic. If it continues to follow the advice of cable television pundits and moves further to the right then it will never return to government. It is politics 101 but warrants repeating: elections are won in the centre ground, not on the fringes.
Peter Dutton said the Aston by-election would be a test of his leadership just as it would be a test for Anthony Albanese’s leadership. Well, the people have spoken and Dutton has failed his own test. While there is no imminent threat to his leadership, it is not guaranteed he will lead the Liberals to the next election. There is always somebody who dreams of being leader and the incumbent is never immune from challenge. Politicians will always sacrifice sentiment for survival if they think changing the leader will improve the chances of holding their seats. And Labor is poised to win more seats at the next election.
It is absurd to think the Liberal Party is not in crisis. At the federal election last year, the heartland seats of Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney, Mackellar, Wentworth and Curtin were lost to teal independents. The safe seats of Bennelong and Tangney were ceded to Labor. Brisbane and Ryan were surrendered to the Greens. How does the Liberal Party craft a coherent campaign against three distinct political ideologies?
The party cannot decamp to the western suburbs of Sydney or Melbourne to target Labor-held seats where its primary vote languishes in the mid-20s. It has no chance of regaining government without regaining once safe heartland seats such as Aston. Yet at the next election Liberals also will have to defend the aptly named seats of Deakin and Menzies, both held on margins of less than 1 per cent.
Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal crown. It produced six Liberal leaders: Robert Menzies, Harold Holt, John Gorton, Billy Snedden, Malcolm Fraser, Andrew Peacock. All the seats they held, apart from Fraser’s electorate of Wannon, have been lost. Seats held by Billy McMahon, John Howard, John Hewson, Alexander Downer, Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott in other states have been lost too.
Since the Howard era, the party has suffered from confusion over its ideology, purpose and constituency. This identity crisis has caused deep divisions within the party, which is now heavily factionalised, bleeding members and beset by organisational dysfunction. The party had 150,000 members in the 1940s; it is now below 30,000.
The average Liberal voter has changed dramatically in the past 50 years: they are less wealthy, no longer predominantly university educated or employed in the professional sector. Demography is also working against the party.
It cannot rely on the ageing baby boomers who are outnumbered by millennials (born 1981-96) and Generation Z (1997-2012). For these later generations the Coalition is a haven for old, white, out-of-touch men. Most of Generation X (1965-80), with millennials and Gen Z, see the brand as toxic. Just 25 per cent of millennials and 26 per cent of Gen Z voted Coalition at the last election. They view the Liberal Party as climate change deniers, hostile to women, against diversity and inclusion, and out of step on Indigenous reconciliation.
When the party promises to reinstate super tax breaks for wealthy retirees, is essentially opposed to the voice, did not support the revamped safeguard mechanism to address climate change, and its state MPs attend anti-trans rallies with neo-Nazis, is it any wonder Aston was lost?
I wrote here last week that some Liberal insiders expected a by-election defeat given how out of touch the party is. While the recuperative powers of political parties are not to be underestimated, the Liberal Party’s continued existence is not certain. Parties must remain contemporarily relevant, as Gough Whitlam said. From 1967 to 1972, when Whitlam was opposition leader, his project was to make Labor fit for purpose: winning elections. Policies were overhauled, party structures were reformed, candidates were recruited and the frontbench was remade.
Menzies knew the United Australia Party was no longer a viable political force after the 1943 election. He set about creating a new party in 1944. The Liberal Party, with a mass membership, representative of the community and focused on the mainstream centre ground of politics, came into existence. Menzies drafted the party’s philosophy, designed its structure and developed its policies.
The task for Dutton is to preside over a wholesale reform of the Liberal Party, from restructuring the party’s organisational wing to finding new candidates and rewriting policies, and developing a modern mission statement to rally behind. There is no sign this has been seriously contemplated or yet begun.
Dutton’s choice is clear: he can be the leader who saves the Liberal Party or lead it to its demise.
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