Newspoll: Scott Morrison echoes of John Howard after poll success

Former Prime Minister John Howard and Scott Morrison. Picture: Kym Smith

Today’s Newspoll saw the Coalition’s two-party lead reduced and Scott Morrison’s net satisfaction rating cut. So what? Morrison can walk on water can’t he?

So early in the Coalition’s third term I doubt insiders will be watching the polls too closely. The election result defied the polls, all the polls. And the PM now has a proven track record of turning things around, even at the very last minute.

Once nervous backbenchers will now believe that their leader can always pull a rabbit out of his hat. Just like they did with John Howard, who orchestrated political comebacks ahead of the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections. Howard’s backbench put their faith in him doing so again in 2007 … right up until the point in time when he didn’t.

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Morrison has the added advantage of new leadership rules which make it nigh impossible to remove him, even if his party room wanted to.

Besides, today’s Newspoll still has the Coalition in front of Labor on the two-party vote, Morrison way out ahead of Anthony Albanese on the better PM rating, and the Coalition’s primary vote is marginally higher than it was at the election.

How good is Australia?

What will be most fascinating to see unfold during this term is how voters treat the Morrison government. Do they treat it like a new government or a third term government?

Yes the Coalition is in its third term, but Morrison as the third PM during that time just won his first election, and did so with a new look line up given all the retirements.

If he’s treated like a first term PM the Coalition will get the benefit of the doubt from voters, making life a lot easier for them. Remember, no first term government has lost at its first re-election bid since 1931.

In contrast very few third term governments win themselves a fourth term. And Morrison only has a wafer thin majority, holding 77 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives.

Whether voters treat the government like a first or third term administration isn’t yet known, but we can safely assume that the Coalition won’t function like a first term government. First-term governments tend to have boundless energy and ideas.

While Morrison is full of energy, as we saw on the campaign, and his backbench keeps wanting to spruik new ideas (think super, nuclear power, IR and New Start), Morrison personally isn’t exactly an ideas man. His best idea has been not to focus on ideas, instead targeting Labor’s ideas.

Which means Morrison will be a happily boring PM: seeking to stifle dissent, avoid hubris and not put a big policy target on his back the way that Bill Shorten did at the last election.

Happily boring but hoping for success.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University