When people are ready to kick a government out, the signs become obvious. Those signs are not visible for Labor.
There is no evidence in the polls to suggest voters have moved decisively against the Albanese government.
What the latest Newspoll demonstrates is a prevailing lack of enthusiasm for both major parties and an accompanying lack of excitement for either Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton.
There is a distinct lack of momentum in either direction as the odds of minority government continue to grow for the next election.
The fact both major parties may have recovered ground over the past three weeks suggests two things: the nuclear issue has worked its way through the system for Dutton while Albanese has weathered the storm over Fatima Payman and the CFMEU scandal.
There is a remarkable consistency in the poll numbers since the beginning of the year, and since the election, if the post-election honeymoon for Labor is removed from the equation. Averaged out since January this year, Labor is on a primary vote of 32.8 per cent and the Coalition on 37.2 per cent. The election results were 32.6 per cent and 35.7 per cent respectively.
A critical question in the next election beyond cost-of-living concerns becomes one of strength and style of leadership.
Labor’s framing of Dutton has been far less potent than its dismantling of Scott Morrison. And one of the Coalition’s greatest mistakes in government was its failure to mount an effective campaign against Albanese. Dutton doesn’t want to repeat this mistake, and with his having set about depicting Albanese as a weak leader, questions about the latter’s performance are starting to bite.
With the issue of leadership central to the election, the concerning aspect for the PM is that while both leaders remain in negative approval territory, Dutton has been slowly making ground on the Labor leader.
Dissatisfaction with Albanese is higher than Dutton. And the net negative split shows only a point between them.
The latest Newspoll also shows a margin of just seven points in favour of Albanese as preferred prime minister. Dutton also for the first time has a four in front of his approval numbers.
In the eyes of voters, it all looks pretty grim – an economy that is punishing them, a political apparatus seemingly detached from reality.
Less than a third of voters nominated Albanese and Dutton as the preferred choice as leader of their party. There is a direct reflection of the headline Newspoll numbers into this question.
While both enjoy majority support within their respective bases, there can be no suggestion their leaderships are under threat. And there is no one who stands out as a clear alternative as leader for either of the major parties.
The telling number is that more people chose none of the above when given a choice.
The question now becomes one of whether Albanese is becoming a drag on the Labor vote, having prior to the voice been considered the party’s best asset. Considering Labor’s primary vote has been about 33 per cent for the best part of a decade, it would be hard to say he is. And plenty of PMs have had worse numbers than this. At the same time, it would be hard to say he is adding to it.
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