Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are failing to break the gridlock of an electoral contest mired in a bog of mediocrity.
With the past three weeks dominated by indulgent spectacle, internal division, depressing economic news and a rerun of the climate wars, it is hardly surprising voters have declared a pox on both houses.
There can be little doubt the Liberal leader has lost skin over his daring nuclear power plan, even if the numbers suggest the battle is still there to be won.
Community opinion for and against is virtually evenly divided, with a rump still sitting on the fence.
The nuclear issue is a far closer-run argument than the one Albanese created over the voice referendum. But it is clearly playing out better among men than women. This may explain some of the fall.
But there is no evidence yet that women are turning off the Coalition in response to this policy, with plenty of other issues occupying voters’ minds.
The Liberal leader may have been anticipating some short-term damage as he seeks to build electoral support. The latest Newspoll will be of concern.
What will frustrate Dutton is that his nuclear power policy hasn’t yet galvanised conservative voters who have parked themselves with the minor right-wing parties since the last election.
The issue has now become hyper-partisan. It is now more sharply divided along party political lines.
When a general proposal for small modular nuclear reactors was first put to voters earlier this year by Newspoll, there was 55 per cent support across the board, and more than 60 per cent support among younger voters.
With the question now branded politically as a nuclear plan by Peter Dutton and the Liberal/Nationals parties, that support has drained away.
This may say less about people’s opinion on nuclear than it does about their natural political bias.
Greens and Labor supporters, and younger voters who were more supportive of nuclear power as a net-zero proposal but who don’t like Dutton or the Coalition, are now more likely to line up against it.
It may be irrational but this is the political reality.
The key factor in this debate now comes down to how this issue plays out in marginal seats.
And there is no sugar-coating the latest Newspoll. It’s a shocker for Dutton.
All the gains the Coalition has made against Labor since the budget flop have been eroded since the policy was announced.
That’s not to say the latest numbers are a lot better for Albanese or Labor. Dutton has managed to maintain the very close contest with Albanese as preferred prime minister.
Labor is now also below its last election result on primary vote, with the Coalition hanging on to a marginal gain.
Albanese has recorded his second-worst dissatisfaction ratings since becoming Prime Minister. Dutton has done the same.
There has been little to be impressed by.
Not that this is unique. The electorate has been in a state of disillusionment for the past 15 years, for one reason or another.
This has been reflected in the view of the leaders on both sides.
The last time both an opposition leader and prime minister were in positive net approval territory heading into an election was in 2008 when John Howard was plus eight and Kevin Rudd was plus 37.
It went downhill from there and stayed there.
When Julia Gillard contested the 2010 election she was at plus one. Tony Abbott was at minus six.
In 2013, Abbott was minus six and Rudd was minus 25.
When Turnbull called the 2016 double-dissolution election, he was at minus seven. Bill Shorten was minus 14. In 2019, Scott Morrison was plus one and Shorten was minus eight.
In May, Morrison went to the election at minus 14 against Albanese’s minus five.
Albanese and Dutton are not only destined to consolidate this trend, but risk driving disenchantment further.
As a consequence, neither leader is able to harvest increased support for their parties.
At a combined 68 per cent of the primary vote, the major parties risk repeating the last election result, which produced the lowest-ever level of support for the major parties at an election.
At best this maintains the status quo but more likely points to a minority Labor government.
After more than two years, the electorate is as equally uninspired.
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