Newspoll: It’s not all smooth sailing for Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Scott Morrison walks through a designated environmental walking track in Taren Point, NSW. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Jeremy Piper

John Howard lost the 2007 election with a personal satisfaction rating of 50 per cent, fighting to imbed WorkChoices reforms he’d legislated during the previous term.

But Howard had been prime minister for over 11 years, was seeking a fifth term in power and was up against new-kid-on-the-block Kevin Rudd. Then a very popular figure back then.

Scott Morrison according to today’s Newspoll has a satisfaction rating of 59 per cent, despite the trouble he’s faced over the past two months. If ever there was a sign that mainstream voters are disengaged from the concerns of the “bubble”, as Morrison likes to call it, this poll is it.

To be sure it’s not all smooth sailing for the PM. The Coalition is still down against Labor on the two party vote, 49-51 per cent. But that represents an improvement from the previous poll, and the Coalition’s primary vote is now where it was when it won the last election.

Besides, Morrison knows how to win elections coming from behind. He didn’t beat Bill Shorten in a single poll during their eight months squaring off ahead of the last election, until the only poll that counts: Election Day.

For all the spiteful hissing being directed at Morrison nearly 6 out of 10 Australians are happy with his performance. And that’s before the May budget splashes the cash, the vaccine rollout improves and problems with hotel quarantine get sorted, if they ever do.

It will also take time for the government’s various policies to address failings towards women take effect. When that happens satisfaction with Morrison could lift even higher. Assuming he doesn’t continue to stumble.

Of course there are sections of the commentariat who will never be satisfied with the PM’s performance. Sections of the electorate too. But they aren’t the equivalent of voters who have turned away from the government in recent months, and so far at least they certainly don’t represent the mainstream in marginal electorates.

Some voters have deserted the government since the pandemic waned as an issue domestically. Morrison’s satisfaction rating was nudging 70 last year. But not as many as you’d think if you confined your reading material to social media.

There are soft dissatisfied voters who can be won back by the Coalition between now and polling day, and they will need to go after these cohorts in the community to win a fourth term. That’s because the electoral settings are working against the government. It’s effectively lost its majority, is facing a number of MP retirements, has lost seats previously in its favour via unhelpful redistributions, and the conservatives needs to retain a lions share of seats in states like Queensland and WA which won’t be easy.

But make no mistake, today’s Newspoll is no vindication for Labor or indeed the Morrison haters. They should be doing infinitely better under the circumstances. Perhaps their collective bile being spewed against the PM is a turn off to the mainstream, who doesn’t like being lectured to, doesn’t like over the top attacks and doesn’t think the naysayers are on the mark.

Even if they want the government to do better.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy and the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.