Newspoll a glass half full or empty for both sides

Newspoll has good and bad news for both Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese. Picture: Toby Zerna; Naomi Jellicoe/NCA Newswire.

Today’s Newspoll is interesting for a number of reasons: it can be read to support your world view almost no matter what that world view is.

The Primary vote of both major parties has fallen, the Coalition’s is one point lower than Labor’s, at 35 and 36 per cent respectively. The two party vote is steady from a week ago, 53-47 per cent favouring the Labor Party.

Yet Anthony Albanese’s personal support has fallen. His net satisfaction rating has dropped from minus three to minus 14. At the same time Scott Morrison’s has slightly improved from minus 12 to minus 9. Morrison leads on the better PM rating, by slightly more than he did a week ago, 44 to 37 per cent.

So how are we supposed to interpret these results? Well that’s up to you.

If you want Labor to win the election take comfort in the two party vote holding up for the opposition. Despite Albo’s gaffe on day one a few other minor stumbles along the way the opposition still has a commanding six point lead. Equally, a primary vote of just 35 per cent for the Coalition is no where near high enough to win an election. It needs to be in the forties which is a step mountain to climb in just four and a half weeks.

If, however, you are a Coalition supporter take comfort in the collapse in Albo’s personal support. In a campaign that can be a portent to a party vote decline. And we know that the Coalition are strong marginal seat campaigners, which means they could win this election with as little as 48.5 per cent of the two party vote, which isn’t all that much more than the polled 47 per cent. And a look at the key marginal seats reveals that Labor needs more sizeable swings in some individual seats than this poll provides nationally to secure a majority.

If you regard both major parties and their leaders as unsuited to govern and would like to see a strong protest vote for third party candidates at this election, then look no further than these latest polling results. Nearly a third of those polled picked a party other than the majors, 29 per cent to be precise. The Greens vote is at 12 per cent, which if replicated across the country could give them control of the senate in their own right. One Nation and the United Australia Party each polled a relatively healthy four per cent.

And if you find all three of these parties to be too radical to both the left and right, the “other” component of Newspoll came in at nine per cent, mostly likely a reflection of a strong showing by the independents contesting inner city seats around the country.

So there you have it, a glass half full reading of the latest Newspoll has positive news within it for everyone. If, however, you’d like a dispassionate academic interpretation, free of partisan leanings, which solely analyses the meaning behind the data it goes something like this: The most likely outcome remains a Labor win, but with Albo’s personal support in decline there is a pathway there for Morrison’s re-election. But it remains very narrow. And the Coalition’s primary vote is way below where it needs to be. Labor are deserved favourites at this moment in time, but nervousness is warranted.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.

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