Morrison pulls himself out of the fire in latest Newspoll

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is enjoying a spike in popularity while his government is level with Labor in the latest Newspoll. Picture: AAP

The most remarkable aspect of the latest Newspoll is the disparity between the satisfaction ratings for the Prime Minister and the two-party vote for the government he leads.

The PM is popular, his government is not. It’s a hard contrast to explain.

Scott Morrison has entered Kevin Rudd territory when it comes to his popularity. That is, the heights Rudd soared, not the depths it plummeted to at the bitter end.

The PM’s satisfaction rating is up to 68 per cent, according to Newspoll. Considering it had collapsed to just 38 per cent at the start of February — in the wake of the bushfires and his poorly timed Hawaiian holiday — that is some turn around. It’s a steeper upward curve than COVID-19 in nations not doing as well as we are in fighting the coronavirus pandemic.

READ MORE: Jim Molan flags run at Eden-Monaro; Premiers are riding on Morrison’s popularity coat-tails; Millions of Australians suffer, while those with regular salaries are the elite; Thirst for freedom drives corona app uptake

Of course Morrison’s improvement has been built off the back of his response to the crisis. In a sense, the failures surrounding his reaction to the bushfires gave the PM a test run at getting the response to the pandemic right.

The public is rewarding him, and fair enough. The test will be what happens in the aftermath. Rudd found that as failures in the rollout of his stimulus spending came to light, his personal numbers soon fell away.

As Morrison enjoys his spike, the Coalition and the Labor opposition are both at 50 per cent in the two-party vote.

Given that the government has — generally speaking — done well managing the coronavirus crisis, you’d expect the applause to be evident in the ratings for the PM and his team.

We may soon find out which indicator is more relevant, assuming Labor’s Mike Kelly does step away from politics, forcing a by-election for his ultra-marginal seat of Eden-Monaro.

However, the likelihood of a three-cornered contest between Labor, the Nationals and the Liberal Party risks distorting any result.

Either way, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese faces a tough ballot if Morrison’s personal support remains this high.

Peter van Onselen is political editor for Network 10 and professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.