The flight to political certainty amid the coronavirus pandemic has lifted support for many incumbent leaders around the world. But Scott Morrison’s numbers are remarkable for another reason.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approval ratings have risen 11 points to 79 per cent. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval is at 61 per cent, and even French President Emmanuel Macron has had a seven-point lift.
In Italy, a country hit worse by the virus than most others, support for Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has soared to 71 per cent.
Donald Trump is one of the few exceptions, having gone backwards five points to 43 per cent. This is not surprising.
But having been all but written off barely three months ago in the wake of the bushfires, Morrison has achieved what only one other prime minister has done since the mid-1980s, when Newspoll began gauging the popularity of the country’s political leaders.
Satisfaction with his leadership has gone from 37 per cent in February to 68 per cent now. Only Kevin Rudd has enjoyed a number higher. But not often and from a comfortable base. At his peak in 2008 following the Ruddslide election, he got to 71 per cent once and remained in the high 60s before his slide into political disaster.
John Howard enjoyed support of 67 per cent on one occasion, in the months following the election in 1996 that saw off Paul Keating. Even Bob Hawke didn’t get this high, and he came close only once or twice after 1985 when the polling began. One difference was that all those leaders enjoyed something Morrison doesn’t at the moment. At the peak of their popularity, they led governments with a primary vote in the high 40s and even low 50s.
But then they weren’t engaged in trying to spare the country the ravages of a pandemic.
Trying to analyse why the Coalition’s current numbers are flat, albeit being at the same levels that narrowly won them the election, is next to impossible.
They pose the question as to whether the national numbers for both parties are being influenced by the strong performances of some premiers. The national cabinet, Morrison’s creation, has given the premiers a platform on a national scale they have never had before, sitting alongside a prime minister at the height of his popularity.
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