Mark McGowan’s WA border move has big implications for PM and his election campaign

WA Premier Mark McGowan’s decision to delay the opening up of his state’s borders while incredibly frustrating for WA expats and their families is also understandable. The state is largely Covid free and has remained so when the rest of the country is riddled with the new variant. Who wouldn’t be happy to live that way?

I can understand why the Premier wants to delay the spread of Covid happening in his state, but is he simply delaying the inevitable? Perhaps. The excuse is that he wants third doses to hit 80 per cent and they are currently well shy of that mark. But the previous KPI he set was 90 per cent second doses, there will always be a new benchmark that can be applied if fear trumps hope.

Yet I do not write that as a criticism of McGowan’s decision. Speaking to friends and family in WA most support the Premier’s position on this one. Strongly so. They are enjoying their Covid-free lives. They aren’t having to face up to hospital capacity issues or growing numbers of people getting sick or dying. The Premier in his evening media conference overstated these issues, but they are causes for concern. Especially in WA where the hospital system is sub-par and remote communities in the nation’s largest state face extra challenges.

Given that WA has always had a strong independent streak from the rest of the Commonwealth, it is no surprise that this move will be popular in the west. McGowan is facing strong criticism beyond his state’s borders, but that isn’t his concern. Not remotely. The adopted West Aussie is interested in serving the wants of his electors, and they will remain firmly behind this decision. Notwithstanding the heartbreak for some: missed weddings, funerals and family get togethers. And don’t forget about the damage businesses face, including the higher education sector in the west which now faces the financial hit of a delayed return of international students.

WA Premier Mark McGowan and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

But as McGowan points out, Covid running though an economy causes as many problems as opening up borders solves. WA residents have watched on as states like South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland went from Covid-free places to Covid-riddled communities.

Scott Morrison won’t like this delay because it delays his ability to get to the west to campaign ahead of the federal election. He faces real threats in a number of WA seats: Swan, Pearce and Hasluck just for starters. The PM needs to hit the hustings in WA to win over voters frustrated with his government. He can’t rely on the state Liberal Party to campaign on his behalf because at the last state election they were reduced to just two MPs in the state’s lower house. In contrast Anthony Albanese can leave campaigning to his state Labor colleagues, especially the popular McGowan.

Federal opposition leader Anthony Albanese (left) and Premier of Western Australia Mark McGowan.

And Morrison will need to tread very delicately (not something he’s known for) in responding to McGowan’s move. He won’t like it, but if Morrison challenges this move too strongly he risks upsetting voter cohorts in the west he needs to retain government.

So what happens next? McGowan sits and waits. He’ll carefully judge the public’s response to this move. He’ll watch and wait to see how quickly West Aussies get those third doses. He’ll hope that Omicron doesn’t flood the state anyway, because there have been breaches. If McGowan needs to pivot and open earlier, he will. If another opportunity to delay presents itself, he’ll take it if he thinks doing so is popular.

Already there are predictions that McGowan in doing this has gone too far and will lose popularity. It will polarise the community but I suspect most will continue to trust the Premier’s judgement.

As long as McGowan has the support of his state constituencies he certainly won’t give a damn what the rest of the country thinks. Criticisms from outside WA only serve to increase the popularity of McGowan, because West Aussies take a them and us view of the rest of the Commonwealth. It has always been thus.

Peter van Onselen is the Political Editor at Network 10 and a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia.