Liberals give Bill Shorten worst day yet but more are needed

Bill Shorten had his worst day in years yesterday but will it be enough to defeat him? Picture: Kym Smith.

The combination of Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg has done what Malcolm Turnbull never could: lay a glove on Bill Shorten.

The Labor leader makes no apology for taking a suite of major policy changes to the election, flagging them well in advance and hopeful that he receives mandate for change. He hopes that being bold will pay a political dividend.

But Shorten’s big-target strategy was always high risk. Until this week, he had largely got away with it. The Coalition has struggled to punch any holes in Labor’s policies. Even Morrison as Treasurer was not the campaigner he is now.

Coalition and Labor figures say privately that yesterday was the opposition’s worst day in years as the attacks on a raft of policies, aided by questioning by journalists, saw the usually confident Shorten on the back foot.

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Shorten said he had “no plans to increase taxes on superannuation”, yet Labor’s changes to retirement incomes are set to raise $34 billion over the next ten years according to the Coalition.

Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax policy details mysteriously disappeared from its website and were replaced with just ten paragraphs. This policy, which was taken to the last election, is resonating as voters see their home values fall.

It comes after Chris Bowen came under sustained attack last week for apparently overstating the impact of the policy by as much as $8 billion.

Labor’s changes to franking credits has been branded a “retirees tax” and this too is having an impact in some seats, particularly in NSW, where there is a significant cohort of older voters in seats like Reid and Gilmore.

Labor’s climate change policies have been under sustained attack and yesterday Shorten dodged a question about the impact of his 45 per cent emissions reduction target on the economy. Labor MPs say climate and opposition spokesman Mark Butler has not done the work needed to mitigate the Coalition’s attacks.

The big question is: Are voters listening? For a government that has been behind in 50-plus Newspolls, and still trails 48-52 per cent on the two-party vote, winning one day during the election campaign is not enough. Voters will not ignore the past three years.

Strategists in the Coalition and Labor say that if an election were held today, Labor would win. But there is nervousness in Labor ranks and increasing optimism in Coalition ranks. Labor wants to get back to talking about health; the Coalition wants the campaign to focus on taxation and the economy.

The problem for the Coalition is that the campaign will hit a lull later this week with Easter and next week with Anzac Day. The Coalition needs a run of days like yesterday. Labor will be looking forward to the reprieve and the opportunity to recalibrate its campaign.