Liberal leadership crisis looms as Sussan Ley’s support drops to record low
Assumptions that Ley would be afforded ample time and space to methodically work through reviews of Peter Dutton’s election policies have been proven wrong.
The Liberal Party’s first female leader inherited a hot mess from Dutton.
Over a six-month period, the Coalition’s primary vote under Dutton crashed from a high of 40 per cent in November last year to 31.8 per cent at the May 3 election. Whoever replaced Dutton was going to find it a tough slog. After Ley narrowly defeated Angus Taylor for the leadership four months ago, the Coalition’s primary vote has plunged to an all-time Newspoll low of 27 per cent.
A Newspoll state-by-state and demographic analysis of polls between July 14 and September 11 is frightening reading for Coalition MPs and supporters. It shows men, older Australians, younger voters and almost every demographic and state abandoning the Coalition.
While some Liberal MPs and strategists warn disunity is death in politics, and that polling numbers will continue falling if divisions continue, Coalition conservatives are rounding on Ley. They don’t want to wait until after Christmas to axe the Coalition’s net-zero emissions by 2050 policy and are pushing hard for immediate movement towards adopting a hardline position reducing migration.
Ley will not be easily pushed out. And any half-baked attempt to destabilise her leadership would edge the Coalition closer to where the Tories have found themselves in Britain.
But Ley and her leadership team must address flashing red polling indicators. High priorities for the Coalition must be winning back NSW, Queensland, West Australian, Victorian and outer-suburban voters, cauterising the bleeding of older voters and men to One Nation and other minor parties, and making conservative politics more appealing to those voters aged 18-to-34.
Dutton was accused of having a “woman problem”. The Newspoll quarterly analysis shows Ley has a “man problem”.
The sharp drop in men supporting the Liberals and Nationals, which has erased the so-called “gender gap” in Coalition supporters, will need to be reversed by Ley.
While the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen most in the older voter category, the inability of the Liberals and Nationals to connect with younger voters is diabolical. The Newspoll quarterly analysis shows the Coalition (18 per cent) is now behind Labor (36 per cent), the Greens (26 per cent) and minor parties/independents (20 per cent) in attracting support from voters aged between 18 and 34.
Despite internal mutterings of new conservative or moderate breakaway parties, the Coalition can rebuild its brand ... but it will be a long road back. Facing the risk of pre-Christmas destabilisation, expect Ley’s timelines for reviews, change and healing to be brought forward.
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Sussan Ley’s leadership timer clock will tick forwards or backwards depending on how she manages a brewing internal uprising threatening to weaponise climate and migration as triggers for change.