Last Liberal premier standing rolls electoral dice

Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Picture: Linda Higginson

After dillydallying, Australia’s last Liberal premier has secured the blessing of his colleagues to roll the electoral dice.

The irony is that Jeremy Rockliff himself has loaded those dice against his own party – or rather both major parties – by increasing the size of the House of Assembly.

With voters returning 35 MPs from five electorates rather than the current 25, the quota for a seat drops from 16.7 per cent of the vote to 12.5 per cent.

That greatly improves the odds for independents, the Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network and other minor parties.

If Rocky and his team didn’t like dealing with two independent ex-Liberals – who align with them on most policy issues – how will they cope with a Lambie acolyte or more Greens?

Blaming the two turncoats – Lara Alexander and John Tucker – for the early poll only partly passes the pub test.

Both had shown a willingness to vote with the opposition parties to inflict bloody noses on their former colleagues in parliament, demanding documents, imposing deadlines and generally asserting the rights of MPs over the executive.

But they had – to date – kept to their promise of confidence and supply, repeated as recently as late last week.

And the issues on which Tucker had momentarily threatened to withdrawn his support – CCTV in abattoirs and the timing of construction of an AFL training centre – were quickly resolved as little more than misunderstandings.

So why are the last Liberals jumping lemming-like over a likely electoral cliff?

Senior party figures, including the Premier, decided the Liberal brand – underpinned by “strong, stable government” – was being damaged by the constant parliamentary coups and likelihood of more destabilising threats.

An early election also allows the government to argue its promised AFL stadium and team – likely to run into major difficulties in coming months – are still deliverable.

It also avoids facing voters after a difficult May state budget, with a weakening economy undermining already softening revenues and burgeoning debt set to reach a record $5.6 billion.

Labor, whose state branch has just been released from national administration, will be hoping the bitter internal stoushes that cruelled its 2021 campaign are a thing of the past.

It may lose a seat to dumped former leader David O’Byrne – who will run as an independent, doubtless with left wing union cash. But at least it has settled the incendiary debate over his future by blocking his preselection.

The Liberals are now just as divided. Some hardcore conservatives – led by former Howard minister Eric Abetz, who is running for state parliament – are determined to bring the Rockliff-led moderates into check.

Grab the popcorn. Rockliff’s great gamble has begun.