Australia’s last Liberal government gambles all on protecting its brand

Tasmanian independent MPs John Tucker and Lara Alexander outside Parliament House in Hobart. Picture: Matthew Denholm

Two-headed Tasmanian jokes are passé these days, but Jeremy Rockliff is doing his best to keep the tradition alive.

Australia’s last Liberal Premier had more than a touch of the Zaphod Beeblebroxes about him on Friday. One Rockliff head was accusing the state’s two ex-Liberal independents of “holding Tasmanians to ransom” and warning he’ll call an early election unless they buckle to his will.

The other was declaring “I don’t want an early election”; all he wanted was “sensible discussions” and for “cooler heads … to prevail”.

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Rockliff’s frustrations with the two former Liberals, who quit to join the crossbench last May, are partly understandable.

John Tucker has threatened to withdraw his confidence in the government, over perceived failures to meet parliament’s demands on animal welfare and the AFL stadium.

Lara Alexander has not issued such threats so explicitly, but has suggested the matter might be up for debate.

The Premier – who needs the support of both MPs to govern – feels such conduct breaches the deal he had with the two turncoats and has demanded a new one before parliament resumes on March 5.

One of the clauses he is insisting on would prevent the two independents voting for any motions or amendments put forward by non-government parties or MPs, unless approved by Rockliff.

As Alexander has pointed out, that would dent if not destroy their independence. She has already vowed not to sign up; Tucker also appears extremely unlikely to agree.

So what is Rocky’s game?

The election is not due until May 2025, but it appears he and his government have concluded things are not going to get better for them.

Rocky’s team is going to get regularly humiliated by Tucker and Alexander in parliament. It may be democracy in action, but it further erodes the Liberal brand of ‘strong, stable government’.

Meanwhile, the state’s economic ascendancy has stalled, its debt is rising and considerable doubt hangs over the government’s ability to deliver its signature projects – the AFL stadium and Marinus Link power interconnector.

The longer Rockliff waits to call an election, the more likelihood of timelines or budgets for both projects further blowing out, undermining the Liberals’ election pitch.

So why not just call the election? It comes back to that “strong, stable” brand. The trigger in voters’ minds must be instability caused by the independents; not the government’s incompetence.

The Premier’s ultimatum is an attempt at a win, win. Either the two rebels agree to be neutered, or they cop the blame for an early poll.

With an expanded House of Assembly lowering the quota for a seat, it’s difficult to see either major party winning a majority whenever the election occurs.

But the Liberals believe their prospects are much stronger if the “strong, stable” brand retains at least a modicum of credibility. One way, or the other.