Jodi McKay leadership: After this, the only talk is of ‘transition’

Jodi McKay. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

Jodi McKay’s supporters said it was preposterous for Labor to even dare to dream of victory during Saturday’s Upper Hunter by-election on account of the seat’s century-long history as a citadel of Nationals voting power.

But if ever there was ever an opportunity for an opposition to up-end expectations, and snatch heartland from the Coalition, surely the ground was laid for such a historic upset.

On any reading of the past few weeks, the NSW government should have been wiped out at the weekend. The Nationals limped into this fight with a hobbled electoral margin of 2.6 per cent amid perceptions of rot and sleaze.

The trigger for this by-election was a scandal in which the sitting MP, Michael Johnsen, resigned over allegations he had assaulted a sex worker, allegations that he continues to deny.

It was followed by the resignation of former families minister Gareth Ward, who quit cabinet after it emerged he was under investigation by the Child Abuse and Sex Crimes Squad.

A former sports minister, John Sidoti, remains the subject of an Independent Commission Against Corruption inquiry into his family’s property dealings.

And then there is Premier herself, who has been grilled over her relationship with former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire. No formal finding has been made over that matter, but these blights are enough to wear down any government, even one as popular as Gladys Berejiklian’s.

Yet instead of anything resembling a victory, Labor squandered what little support it had in the district, while the Nationals mounted a comeback — of sorts. With a primary vote hovering around 31 per cent, the Coalition extended its margin just enough to secure victory.

McKay’s defenders rightly point out the task of winning the Upper Hunter was always going to be steep. Even under the Labor governments of Bob Carr and Neville Wran, this had never been achieved. But these supporters neglect to mention the substantial decline in Labor’s primary vote in the years since those leaders held power.

McKay was quick to concede this was a “terrible result”. She said: “We didn’t expect our vote to be torn away like it was.”

Admitting to many failings on Sunday, McKay stopped short of attributing the result to a failure of leadership on her part, or a vote of no-confidence from the community. She said the real blame should fall to poor campaign messaging and broader issues within her party.

This may be true, but given Labor’s consistently low polling numbers, McKay’s sub-optimal satisfaction ratings, and the 7 per cent slide Labor experienced on Saturday, it would stand to reason that such rationalisations belie a much deeper and more sobering truth: the opposition will be annihilated in 2023.

There are certainly forces within the shadowy corners of the Labor caucus agitating for a refresh. Kogarah MP Chris Minns is the obvious replacement for McKay, as is former leader Michael Daley or health spokesman Ryan Park.

Were Minns to ascend, then he would pose an actual hazard to the Berejiklian government. He’s sharp, presentable, educated and likeable; Liberal MPs want him brought on as soon as possible so they can have time to amass attacks against him, but also to force adjustments to their own side as the election draws closer.

For now, Labor MPs are banking on McKay walking away quietly to prevent the need for a spill, but it sounds increasingly as though this will be brought on if the agitators do not get what they want.
As one noted on Sunday: “Everyone (is) invested in an orderly transition.”