Penny Wong has touched down in Washington at a fraught moment in the US relationship.
The Australian public is not accustomed to the current level of risk and uncertainty over the direction of the partnership with America.
The Foreign Minister will meet her counterparts from the Quad nations, but the political focus will be on her bilateral meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
A strong US relationship is the bedrock of Australian foreign policy, but Canberra and Washington do not see eye to eye on a range of issues – and the differences can no longer be so easily swept under the rug.
The challenge for Wong is whether the growing points of difference can be smoothly managed or whether they become irritants that disrupt the close friendship Australia has long enjoyed with Washington.
She could emerge as an effective manager of relations with the Trump administration, or she could deepen the sense of disruption.
Such a setback isn’t out of the question.
NATO has already reached a historic agreement to lift defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, but the US administration says its “priority theatre” is the Indo-Pacific, given the rising influence of China.
Washington is requesting that Canberra massively increase its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, but there is a reluctance back home to lift efforts beyond the 2.3 per cent planned by 2033.
This is feeding anxiety over whether the Pentagon’s snap 30-day review of the AUKUS agreement could place new caveats on the US commitment to provide Australia with Virginia-class submarines or create new off-ramps for Washington.
Donald Trump has upended the global trading system, imposing his 10 per cent general tariff on Australian goods in addition to a 50 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium exports, despite significant lobbying efforts from Canberra to obtain an exemption.
Further hurdles lie ahead for Australia, with the News Media Bargaining Code and social media ban for under-16s being strongly opposed by the major tech giants that are now aligned with Trump.
Already, Canada has announced it will retreat from its planned digital services tax on US tech companies in a bid to salvage its trade relationship with Washington after Trump said he was suspending talks.
More recently, Australia’s attitude to the Middle East and criticism of Israel has contrasted with the strong support in the administration for the Jewish nation. Anthony Albanese backed US strikes on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, but took 24 hours to do so.
These deeper differences in policy and perspective are being exacerbated by surface-level problems. Albanese is almost certain to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping before he meets Trump.
This will be seen as a soft power win for Beijing, but a fail in political optics for the Albanese government. There is little Albanese can do about it, given his meeting with Trump at the G7 was delayed as a result of the Middle East crisis – but it is an unfortunate look for the Australian Prime Minister.
Albanese is already being criticised for failing to level with Australians about the reality of China’s strategic intentions as he prioritises the stabilisation of ties with Beijing. This risks inflaming another sore point with the Trump administration.
Australia is at a crucial moment in its management of the US partnership.
The government needs to reassure Australians about the future of the alliance and reliability of the US as a security partner. Storm clouds are brewing and a business-as-usual approach will not be sufficient in navigating the alliance under Trump.
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