It would help the Coalition if they stop talking about themselves
In a round of media interviews this week, the federal Opposition Leader spoke when she had little to say and even less to sell. The scuttling of the party’s net-zero target had to be explained, but in the absence of any policy Sussan Ley should have given her loyal spokesman for energy and emissions reductions, Dan Tehan, the hospital handpass.
For great swathes of the electorate, net zero equals action on climate change. It is a case of perception overwhelming reality.
While 25-year crystal balls are in short supply, it would be difficult to see how Australia could achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 under the Albanese government’s policies. Our modest target of a 42.6 per cent reduction on 2005 emissions by 2030 will probably be reached and possibly ahead of time, but the target itself is not consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement’s ambitions of restricting the rise in global temperatures by 1.5C.
While the Liberal Party climate policy cupboard is bare, the Albanese government’s rhetoric has more holes in it than John Dillinger. The nation’s reductions are, in part, due to the renewables rollout for electricity generation, but one of the largest contributors to emissions reductions has come from improvements in land use, something the Albanese government can claim little credit for, although I’m sure they’ll give it the old college try.
Meanwhile, emissions continue to rise in other sectors of the economy, including transport, by about 5 per cent on 2005 levels.
Vast demographic shifts in Australia are at play and they do not favour the Coalition. In raw numbers, younger voters outnumber older ones. Polling shows about one in 10 Gen Z voters (in electoral terms the generation born between 1997 and 2007) supports the Coalition. Among ethnically and culturally diverse voters, less than one in five supports the Coalition. Of Gen Xers, many of whom are heading towards retirement, just 22 per cent support the Coalition. Even among young conservative voters, the Liberals are limited to a virtual lock-step in support of One Nation.
There is a space for an alternative approach on climate policy but it requires a nuanced, detailed strategy based as much on evidence and credible messaging. In the interim it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.
While some commentators have muttered funereally about the future of the Liberal Party, there are glimmers of hope. Amid the sea of public navel gazing, some good yet may come.
Across the next few months, the Liberal Party will be hoping to staunch the loss of its primary votes to One Nation. Since the federal election in May, polling has shown a loss of more than 10 per cent in the Coalition’s primary vote drifting unwaveringly to One Nation. If there is any political sense to the Coalition dropping net zero, then that leakage of support should stop and at least some of it must come back in a measurable way by the new year.
The Victorian Liberal Party has so often shot itself in the foot, it could request a 50 per cent discount on pedicures. False dawns have appeared on the horizon to the east and come to nought, but I’ll confidently wager Jess Wilson gives the Liberal Party a bounce in polling in Victoria where voters are crying out for a viable and persuasive alternative to today’s omnishambles. Wilson offers a credible alternative to Jacinta Allen’s long, largely lamented stint in government. Victorians can expect a round of publicity of the “Who is Jess Wilson?” type and further fluff about Wilson being a working mum at the pointy end of politics.
It’s not always edifying but it is necessary to bring her to the attention of Victorians who don’t spend their time fixating on daily political minutiae.
Anyone who thinks Victoria is well governed hasn’t set foot in the place for at least two years by my reckoning. Wilson’s job will be to transfer the early, hope-laced curiosity into votes from the centre. Her greatest challenge is to acknowledge the centre in Victoria is now centre-left.
The next big test for the Liberal Party comes on March 21 next year with the South Australian state election. The only significant published polling is a month old, based on 1006 respondents, with Labor notching up an impressive 47 per cent of the primary vote, translating to a 66-34 two-party-preferred result. This would effectively mean a 12 per cent swing to a sitting government. On that basis, the Liberals would lose all of its seats in Adelaide and be reduced to a rural rump of just three seats.
The election is four months away. Peter Malinauskas is a talented politician who almost certainly will be re-elected. The question is by how much. If the current polling is an accurate prediction of the outcome, we need only to look at Western Australia to get a fix on the duration of the SA Liberal Party’s time in the wilderness, if it survives at all as an authentic opposition.
The task is to avoid avoidable errors and the pitfalls of culture war fixations. Politics is hard in opposition. The only way to save the furniture is disciplined messaging and credible alternative policies. Bringing that polling result back to a more respectable 56-44 has to be the objective.
The Coalition must take what slim victories come its way as a disastrous 2025 ends and 2026 is set to begin. The short-term aims are to rebuild its primary vote and hammer the Albanese government on energy prices.
But if the Liberals are still talking about themselves at this time next year, you can bet everybody else has stopped listening.
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It is hard to imagine a greater sin in politics than a party publicly talking about itself, airing its dirty linen in TV interviews while smiling politely at the smouldering wreckage all around it. Some sound advice would be a firm instruction to shut up. The best advice would be not to start speaking at all.