If nothing else, PM must win Trump’s commitment to AUKUS

You can now listen to The Australian's articles. Give us your feedback.

You can now listen to The Australian's articles.

Anthony Albanese has one key mission in his upcoming meeting with Donald Trump – win a commitment that AUKUS will endure and Australia receives its nuclear submarines.

This meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada next week is shaping up as the biggest diplomatic test for the Australian Prime Minister so far.

He cannot afford for the US President to waver on the trilateral security agreement.

This would be seen as a humiliation for Australia and one of the biggest setbacks in relations since the signing of the ANZUS treaty in September 1951.

It would also come as a bitter blow to Albanese who has been one of the key defenders of the security partnership despite deep reservations within the left wing of the Labor Party.

Any withdrawal from the agreement by the US or even a downgrading of its commitment must be seen primarily as a reflection on the outlook and attitudes of the Trump administration.

But Albanese knows that he will be acutely vulnerable to criticism that he has not done enough to retain the US commitment for AUKUS under the new regime in Washington.

His refusal to lift defence spending to more than 2.33 per cent of GDP by 2033-34 is a major problem. Despite Australia’s long standing special relationship with Washington, this issue is the nation’s achilles heel in its diplomacy with Trump.

Confirmation from the Pentagon that it is reviewing the AUKUS partnership to ensure it aligns with Trump’s “American First” agenda will alter the expectations and atmospherics around Albanese’s meeting with the US President.

Albanese will know that the man leading the review – Elbridge Colby – is also an AUKUS sceptic. This will alarm Canberra and generate fears the deal is genuinely under threat.

There is only one way forward for the Prime Minister: he must convince the US President that AUKUS is a key vehicle that advances the “American First” agenda.

There are several key arguments to be made in support of this case – yet the Australian government has been reluctant to promote perhaps the most persuasive.

Speaking to The Australian in December, Scott Morrison, the Australian architect of the AUKUS agreement urged Albanese to promote the agreement as being directly aimed at the military deterrence of China.

“In promoting AUKUS here in the US we need to appreciate that its primary reason for being is to provide a deterrent against adversarial threats,” he said. “The primary one of those is China. And to pretend it’s not does not aid the argument well here.

“We must be conscious that support for AUKUS in the US, particularly amongst Republicans, is because it is a very successful partnership to provide a military deterrent to their biggest strategic rival. And don’t diminish that. Own it. Because it’s true. And if owning it means the Chinese don’t like it, well, too bad.”

Albanese will be tempted to walk a narrow but perilous pathway in his diplomacy with Trump. He will want to avoid leaving the impression he is bending to any demands of Australia made by the US President.

Albanese’s landslide election win will have deepened views within the ALP that acquiescing to Trump will play badly at home. He will also feel more confident in withstanding US pressure for concessions across multiple fronts.

But doing nothing or taking a “business as usual” approach is now untenable and must be shelved. Albanese must secure a commitment to the future of AUKUS and the submarine deal.

Anything less will be seen as a downgrading of the alliance by Trump and inflict grievous damage on the relationship. This will weaken Australia strategically and damage Albanese politically.