Gamble pays off as Barnaby Joyce secures the base

Barnaby Joyce and Minister for the Environment, Sussan Ley MP during Question Time. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The main job of the National Party leader is to get Nattional Party votes.

Any party leader who fails to secure their base, hold on to votes and appeal to new voters fails the party, their parliamentary colleagues, party supporters and themselves.

It is true that the most successful and popular leaders will also appeal to people who don’t traditionally support their brand of politics. John Howard appealed to Nationals voters but more importantly got enough Labor voters to back him into government.

But the priority has to remain looking after the core supporters first rather than crafting policies and strategies that chase new votes at the expense of old votes.

The early indication is that Barnaby Joyce’s election on Monday as Nationals’ leader and return as Deputy Prime Minister is getting the intended results.

It wasn’t that the former leader Michael McCormack was doing a terrible job. It’s just that he wasn’t prominent enough as Nationals leader, particularly in rural Queensland.

Early polling, very early, suggests Joyce’s persona as an “authentic” character in sympathy with “working people” and prepared to enter the culture wars can revive the Nationals base and raise the party profile in rural and regional areas.

A ratio of two to one Nationals supporters prefer Joyce over McCormack, one in five are “more likely” to vote for the Coalition, 70 per cent “just as likely” and only 7 per cent less likely. As well, almost three-quarters of One Nation supporters are more likely or as likely to support the Coalition.

Of course, Greens and Labor supporters don’t like Joyce and most say they are less likely to vote for the Coalition with Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister.

But Joyce wasn’t put in charge of the Nationals to appeal to Greens or ALP supporters. He’s there to hold the Nationals’ vote and appeal to One Nation supporters who may have voted Labor in key seats at the last election.

Even 80 per cent of Liberals say they are just as likely or more likely to vote for the Coalition under Joyce.

As Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull had strong support among Greens and Labor voters but at the 2016 election the Liberals lost 13 seats and it was Joyce’s Nationals that kept the Coalition in government. It’s always better to dance with the one “what brung ya”.