Foreign meddling in global spotlight for 2024 elections

A man votes at a polling station during the consultative referendum on Venezuelan sovereignty in 2023.

Next year will see over two billion people cast their votes in more than 65 elections across the world.

In several, the role of AI, foreign interference and big-tech fact checking will be of great interest to party strategists and national security agencies in Australia ahead of a federal election, which will presumably be held in April or May 2025.

This comes at a time when the government has just released its cyber security strategy; drafting legislation targeted at misinformation and disinformation on digital platforms, and; reforming the Privacy Act to bring it up to speed with the digital age.

At the recent AI safety summit at Bletchley Park, “like-minded governments”, including Australia’s, agreed to test several leading tech companies’ AI models before release.

Meanwhile, the European Union is seeking further details on the measures social media platforms have taken to stop the spread of “illegal content and disinformation” following the Hamas attack on Israel.

There is much to keep election watchers in Australia busy. In the lead-up to Taiwan’s January presidential election, Taiwanese security agencies are paying close attention to the possibility of Chinese manipulation of opinion polls and public relations companies. While a formal declaration of independence is unlikely, whatever the outcome, there is a widespread assumption Beijing favours the opposition KMT.

February general elections will be held in Indonesia, a key Australian security partner on counter-terrorism and people-smuggling. The frontrunner for president, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, is now a mainstream nationalist politician who has positioned himself as President Joko Widodo’s natural successor.

Quad partner India is expected to hold a general election in April, at which Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be returned. National security will again favour Modi, but a rift between India and Australia’s Five Eyes partner, Canada, has emerged following the June killing of a Sikh separatist in Vancouver.

Narendra Modi

The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5. Deep cultural, regional and economic chasms will again be on display, with lessons for Australia. During the 2022 election campaign, then PM Scott Morrison warned “the politics of geography” had led to politically fractured societies, and that some regional Australians felt looked down on “in a world where the big talkers all seem to work in government, or finance or the tech industry or the media”.

San Francisco, a tech hub and where Anthony Albanese attended the APEC leaders summit, is viewed by US conservatives as a left-wing dystopia.

Britain, our other AUKUS partner, will almost certainly go to the polls in 2024, with the Conservative government tipped to lose. Nevertheless, party strategists will monitor the impact of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s shift on net-zero emissions, as well as immigration policies and the Israel-Hamas conflict, in the “red wall” seats won by the Conservatives in 2019.

Joko Widodo

ASIO director-general Mike Burgess has noted events in the Middle East are resonating in Australia, and urged individuals to be mindful of social cohesion when making public statements.

In the US, a Republican victory may bring into doubt certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. While the IRA has been criticised as protectionist, there are potential opportunities for Australian companies to participate in critical mineral supply chains. This is expected to complement an Australian IRA-type package to be announced next year, an initiative pivotal to the Albanese government’s survival, as voters with cost of living front of mind look for tangible benefits from the much-heralded transition to a net-zero economy.

Michael McNeill is managing director of Bower Group Asia, Australia.