New polling finally gives Queensland Premier Steven Miles something to giggle about
G’day readers and welcome to the latest edition of Feeding the Chooks, your weekly insight into what’s really going on in Queensland politics.
Game on
As Liberal National Party supporters stock their fridge with champagne for a widely expected state election win on October 26, it seems there is still a little fizz left in Labor’s hopes of holding onto power.
Chooks has learned that union funded polling shows that Steven Miles is back in the game after throwing around the dosh his government has collected in hiked royalties from the coal miners his beloved Left faction has long demonised.
Queensland’s Together Union, which spent $500,000 on a pro-Labor guerrilla advertising campaign before new spending caps on third party campaigns came into effect in April, is still blowing a tonne of money on statewide track polling.
Union boss Alex Scott told Chooks that the latest poll of 2400 voters – conducted by pollster uComms via text with respondents – revealed a bounce in support for Labor between April and May.
According to Scott, Labor’s primary vote went from 26.9 per cent in April to 30 per cent on May 14 (the night of the federal budget), with the LNP’s falling from 35.1 per cent to 33.7 per cent in the same two polls.
Scott said the Greens primary went from 13 per cent in April to 10.9 per cent, with One Nation’s primary falling from 10 per cent to 5.2 per cent, Katter’s Australia Party moving from 2.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent and others from 2.5 per cent to 2.4 per cent.
There was also a sizeable undecided vote of 10 per cent in April and 16 per cent in May.
But when those undecided voters were pressed to allocate their preference, Labor’s primary vote rose to 36 per cent against the LNP’s 38 per cent.
On those figures, the election race is tight.
Remember, Annastacia Palaszczuk secured re-election in 2017 with just 35.43 per cent of the primary vote.
Chooks is well aware it is just one poll.
But after Labor lost the Ipswich by-election earlier this year and has been spiralling in every other published poll, the general vibe has been that Miles didn’t have a hope.
Not so.
The turnaround in the union poll followed the announcement of the government’s $1000 electricity rebate for every household and business in Queensland.
And since then, Miles revealed that the government was cutting public transport fares to 50c, from August, in a six month trial.
And more goodies are to come in the June 11 state budget, with insiders telling us that cuts to car rego are not too far down the road.
Scott told Chooks that he believes Labor is still in with a chance.
“Our poll has shown a significant shift in community sentiment as a result of the government’s cost of living measures which is indicative of a very close contest if an election was held today,’’ he said.
At a press conference Friday, Miles told reporters he believed Labor can still win. But he refused to commit to serving a full four-year term in opposition if he cannot muster enough seats to form government.
“I am not going to get into that … I am not going to entertain those hypotheticals. My goal is to win the election and then to stay premier,” he said.
Chooks is unaware of any track polling being conducted by the LNP.
But if the union boss and his poll is to be believed, it might be enough to push David Crisafulli into a higher gear.
The LNP leader has been coasting in recent months, playing a small target strategy and refusing to be baited into announcing any new policy initiatives.
It might be time for Crisafulli to fight harder for those votes rather than rely on Labor to lose them.
Peace out
Former veteran Townsville mayor Jenny Hill has pulled the pin on plans to nominate for a winnable spot on Labor’s senate ticket for the next federal election.
Hill told Chooks earlier in May that she was Anthony Albanese’s best chance of winning back regional mining communities in Queensland.
She threw her hat in the ring after word got out that former state minister Kate Jones was planning to contest.
But with the Right faction throwing its support behind Star Entertainment’s in-house lobbyist Corinne Mulholland, both Hill and Jones called it quits this week.
Dwindling power
After a decade ruling the roost, is Queensland Labor’s Gary Bullock about to be knocked off his perch?
The United Worker’s Union boss – who revels in his role as the ALP’s faceless puppet master – failed to galvanise enough support in his own faction to install his star pick Kate Jones into a winnable senate position.
Bullock, the convener of the dominant Labor Left faction, was manoeuvring behind the scenes to pilfer the No. 2 Senate spot from the Right and deliver it to Jones, a member of the Left-aligned Old Guard faction.
Our spies say Bullock was furious that someone leaked the plot to Chooks, which promptly triggered threats of all-out factional warfare.
Jones pulled out of the race this week, exposing Bullock’s slipping grip on his powerbroker title with sources telling Chooks he was unable to win wider support for his plan.
“He promised Jones the job but he couldn’t deliver,” a senior party source said.
So could growing division inside the Left faction mean a new kingmaker emerges after the election?
Bullock took over the role as the most powerful figure in Queensland Labor after the 2015 election, succeeding the late Bill Ludwig – the longtime state secretary and later national president of the Right’s Australian Workers Union.
Bullock’s masterstroke was to have the Left contest seats thought unwinnable for Labor at the 2015 state election, when Annastacia Palaszczuk pulled off her stunning victory that earned her the “accidental premier” title.
Of the now 51-strong Labor state caucus, 33 are members of Bullock’s Left or card carrying members of his union.
But his influence will wane when Labor loses some of those seats, which is almost certain to happen despite the latest union poll.
Unlikely fan
Steven Miles’s plan to slash public transport fares to a flat 50c fee had an unlikely cheerleader this week.
Luke Howarth – federal LNP MP for Petrie and Peter Dutton’s bestie- took to his social media channels to spruik the policy.
“The State Labor Government have just announced a 6-month trial period for 50c TransLink Public Transport fares, commencing August 5 2024. I think this is a great idea, but why only a trial period?” he wrote.
It was only last month federal pollies were blasting their state colleagues for voting in favour of Labor’s emission reduction targets and Howarth’s enthusiasm had more than a few noses out of joint.
“Our always helpful federal MPs just sharing state Labor propaganda,” one LNP insider told Chooks.
The state LNP gave reluctant support for the 50c fares on Sunday with deputy leader Jarrod Bleijie questioning why the trial is scheduled to end a few months after the election.
Chooks asked Howarth why he publicly backed the state Labor policy.
“When I saw they (Crisafulli’s LNP) were going to approve it, I thought stuff it, it’s a good idea. One of the things about being in Opposition, I like to be more positive sometimes.”
Foggy memory
The new mayor of Australia’s largest garrison city has apologised to the military after embellishing details of his service in the lead up to local government elections in March.
Blaming “100 plus” concussions for his poor memory, Troy Thompson – dumped as a One Nation candidate at the last state election – said he believed he was telling the truth as the time.
Ahead of the council poll, Thompson claimed he had served in the army for five years, including in the special forces.
In an interview with A Current Affair on Thursday night Thompson – who was last week referred to the Crime and Corruption Commission – conceded his time was spent as a reservist and largely in the catering corps.
Oh dear.
Couple of ballers
Yvette D’Ath has buried the hatchet with her former boss and close pal Annastacia Palaszczuk with the pair taking to the pickleball court in Redcliffe earlier this month.
The former premier sacked D’Ath as her health minister last year after she failed to stem increasing attacks from the LNP.
Like a lamb to slaughter, Palaszczuk informed her most loyal flunkey that she would be getting the punt minutes before D’Ath was rolled out to a press conference.
Politics is brutal blood sport and D’Ath has clearly copped it on the chin, though we do note Palaszczuk is strategically standing behind D’Ath on the court.
Spotted #1
Troubled Star Entertainment will be on the hunt for new lobbyists after this week’s announcement from Matt Adams that he would leave the casino giant and the expected departure of Corrinne Mulholland to contest the senate.
Adams – a former senior policy adviser to Newman government deputy premier Jeff Seeney – will quit Star to join Twiggy Forrest’s Squadron Energy.
His announcement on LinkedIn prompted a flurry of emails to the Chooks’ inbox with suggestions he is readying himself for a return to government staffing should the LNP win the state election in October.
Spotted #2
The next question time will feel like a breeze for Steven Miles and Cameron Dick after they faced the intense pressure of manning a school tuckshop at morning tea time on Thursday.
In a media stunt to promoting their $15m announcement to help to provide Queensland kids with free school breakfast and lunch, the pair faced a hungry hoard of teenagers.
A panicked Miles was spotted pacing around the tuckshop in search of ham and cheese pizzas while the line grew longer.
“We don’t have any pizzas,” he sheepishly told the teen.
Good practice for the polling booths.
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