Thursday, August 29 is the day that virtually all hope, expectation and speculation about an early federal election in 2024 becomes obsolete with only December 7 left as a saloon of last resort for an “early option” before 2025.
This is not some deeply informed insight from a senior political source or a tip from Anthony Albanese, the man who can call the election, but, a result of the iron laws of elections and the effluxion of time.
For months there has been speculation about an election as early as August or September after inflation falls, interest rates are cut, a cabinet shuffle or a jump in the polls.
The Prime Minister, while never ruling out an early election, as no leader would, has repeatedly argued for a “full term” and said the election will be held next year when it is due. A half-Senate election must be held by mid-May 2025 – and the House of Representatives election will be held at the same time.
Much of the early election speculation has been encouraged by Peter Dutton to maintain discipline in the opposition ranks, Albanese teasing people and fevered imaginations devoid of basic facts.
For instance, the electoral laws state that there must be a minimum period of 33 days between the issue of the writs for an election and the Saturday polling day – in practice it tends to be more like 35 or 36 days.
This means that of course there cannot be an election in August – this Saturday – and Albanese openly ridiculed speculation two weeks ago that there would be an August election – it was impossible even then.
Likewise, allowing for a minimum 33 days there can be no September election this year.
For the same reason the first Saturday of October is ruled out and the rest of October is complicated by a royal visit, the Queensland state election and Albanese’s travel.
King Charles is making his first visit as sovereign in mid-October on his way to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa which begins on Monday, October 21. The protocol is that an election can’t be conducted during a Royal visit – even in England the King and Royal Family “pull back” from public engagements during an election to prevent “distraction” or appearing to be involved in electioneering.
Albanese has also committed to going to Jakarta in October and will attend CHOGM in Samoa.
A federal election can’t be held on the same day as a state election which rules out Queensland’s October 26 polling day.
Given Albanese’s absence overseas, the Queensland poll, the 33-day rule and November’s 30 days an election in November is basically excluded too.
That leaves the only real possible, if not probable, date for an early election as December 7 which would have to be called around Melbourne Cup Day and the last Reserve Bank meeting before the summer break.
Given the likely uncertainty of the ballot and time taken to identify a government there is no chance December 14 would be considered.
All in all, just as Albanese has been saying since the beginning of this year, it seems all the speculation about a 2024 election has come to naught and the analysis will shift to when next year … but that’s an entirely different story.
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