Federal Election 2019: Cowper a seat the Coalition needs to win

Independent Rob Oakeshott (left) and the Nationals' Patrick Conaghan, pictured with Senator Bridget McKenzie, are battling it out in Cowper.

The NSW mid-north coast seat of Cowper, visited by Scott Morrison today, is shaping as one of the crucial battles of next week’s election.

Independent Rob Oakeshott, who famously backed Julia Gillard in minority government after a 17-minute speech in 2010, is making a serious bid to re-enter federal parliament.

During his previous stint in parliament he had been the member for the neighbouring seat of Lyne but his home base of Port Macquarie was moved into Cowper. In 2016, Oakeshott entered the race for Cowper late and, in a campaign run from his kitchen table, achieved 26.29 per cent of the vote.

This time he is making a more concerted bid to re-enter parliament and will have the backing of GetUp on polling booths on election day.

He is aided too by the retirement of Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker who had held the seat since 2001.

This time the Nationals have preselected solicitor Patrick Conaghan, who lives in the mid-north coast town of Kempsey.

Recent internal Nationals polling has put the seat at 50-50.

It is a battle the Coalition needs to win as Oakeshott’s previous backing of the Gillard Labor government and his insistence on strong climate change policy and improvements for the NBN and NDIS make him more likely to end up in Bill Shorten’s column rather than Scott Morrison’s if it comes down to a hung parliament.

Oakeshott needs a swing on a two candidate basis of 4.56 per cent to take the seat from the Nationals.

■ Sid Maher will call each and every seat as part of The Australian’s live coverage of Federal Election 2019 on Saturday, May 18. You can follow Sid on Twitter and read his latest stories here.