The real question is whether Morrison should have made his strongest pitch to the electorate a week earlier instead of keeping his best policy, politics and presentation to the last week.
In the fifth week of the campaign there was a palpable shift in momentum to Anthony Albanese and Labor, despite mistakes, and a rising confidence within the ALP.
On Sunday, at the start of the last week of the campaign, millions have already cast postal and pre-poll votes. The “launch” in Brisbane of a coherent and optimistic plan for “a stronger future” – with its critical counter to Labor’s central housing policy – just may not be enough. It’s not about substance; it’s the time needed to make a difference.
Since Friday, Morrison, under pressure, but with a personal faith in being able to deliver a second election miracle, has taken two uncharacteristically risky decisions that individually and collectively will be sheeted home as critical failures of political judgment and timing should the Coalition lose.
Last week, in an awkward manner and using a difficult turn of phrase – something Morrison has not been able fully to correct over the years – he sought to reassure people who didn’t like him that he could change and the political strategy, too complex by far, was to convince people they could vote for him and get a “change” without actually taking “the risk” of electing Labor.
Morrison’s references to himself at times as a “bulldozer”, coupled with a declaration that he could change, were clumsy. They were unconvincing concessions that just let the Opposition Leader respond with a positive vow that he was a “builder”.
Typically during the election campaign Morrison has been the doyen of detail and Albanese the ruler of retail. Handing Albanese the bulldozer image was feeding a crocodile – one who has demonstrated the ability to turn a complex and damning economic argument about supporting a 5.1 per cent wage hike in keeping with inflation into a populist, sympathetic claim that Labor supports a wage rise for workers that is the equivalent of a cup of coffee or two.
Offers to change, no matter how genuine, are viewed cynically by the electorate. Morrison will be held responsible for not acknowledging the impact of his unpopularity earlier and for offering a solution that may be rejected out of hand.
The second major strategic change since Friday has been finally to pick a fight with Labor on a major policy, to start pushing a positive plan for the future beyond the pandemic and to start to use cut-through political language.
Morrison’s big policy offering from the campaign launch was the plan to unlock Liberal principles on the great Australian dream of owning a family home with a scheme accessing superannuation funds for first-home buyers of up to 40 per cent of their superannuation with a ceiling of $50,000 to help with a deposit.
“Super should be harnessed to support the aspiration of many thousands of families who want to buy a home,” Morrison said. In a direct challenge to Albanese’s proposal for a government-funded deposit share that would have to be returned with a capital gain if the house is sold or passed on to children, Morrison is proposing people be allowed to use “your” money to buy “your” home.
“We want you to own your own home, not the government to own it,” he said. Morrison also channelled a bit of retail Albanese when he said that under the Coalition scheme you wouldn’t have to consult the government on renovations to your home “every time you went to Bunnings to buy a can of paint”.
“It’s a plan that gets the balance right – it utilises money that’s currently locked away to transform a family’s life, with the money then responsibly returned to the super fund at the time of the home’s sale,” he said.
This less complex, less restrictive plan from the Coalition also has the advantage of not requiring taxpayer funds or extending national debt. The housing industry has been more enthusiastic about supporting Morrison’s plan than it was about Albanese’s but this will put the Coalition in direct political conflict with the superannuation funds.
But a fight with Labor and vested interests over a housing plan that doesn’t have an impact on the taxpayer while helping people, particularly the young, facing the more difficult task of saving for a deposit, is not necessarily a negative for the Coalition.
Again, this is where the questions will be asked about the timing. Indeed, there are some within the Coalition who think it should have been released earlier and not kept back to the last Sunday in the campaign.
This is an opportunity for Morrison and the Coalition to pivot, recapture momentum, establish a real policy choice and fight, and start to talk in real terms about cost of living rather than broader economic arguments.
Morrison has built on his record of pandemic recovery in both health and economic terms but the real strength of his almost hour-long appeal was the appeal to the future, an optimism looking beyond the once-in-a-hundred-year pandemic with an empathy and warmth that has been missing for months.
Perhaps not coincidentally in this political event, the last throw of the dice as momentum threatens to slip away from the Coalition, Morrison concentrated on policy, longer-term plans and a sense of having come through a terrible time, but did not mention Albanese once.
Morrison figured more than a dozen times in the ALP launch but on Sunday, having absorbed the lesson of his own unpopularity, he remained positive and avoided personal or character attacks.
The launch will make the Coalition more competitive but will it be competitive enough to win?
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Scott Morrison’s Liberal launch was the best contribution he’s made to the 2022 election campaign. He established for the first time a real policy dichotomy between the Coalition and Labor, showed an emergence of empathy and warmth and has ensured he will be competitive in the last five days before the poll.