Zelensky has called Putin’s bluff

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was smart on Sunday to agree “IMMEDIATELY”, as demanded by Donald Trump in an unsubtle post on the US President’s Truth Social website, to be in Istanbul on Thursday “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH” in Ukraine, as Mr Trump put it. “HAVE THE MEETING NOW!!!” Mr Trump insisted after Vladimir Putin, during a bizarre 2am news conference in the Kremlin, had ruled out an immediate 30-day ceasefire proposed by Mr Zelensky and backed by European leaders. But Putin indicated he could be interested in negotiations to address the “root causes” of the war.

As Mr Zelensky has pointed out, “the very first step in truly ending any war is (invariably) a ceasefire”. He is right; that’s what normally happens in most conflicts. But with Mr Trump apparently again supporting Putin’s position in the crisis after saying a couple of weeks ago he was “pissed off” with the Russian tyrant, the potential is there for what could be one of the most consequential and hopeful moments since Putin launched his invasion in 2022.

Mr Zelensky has pledged that he will be in Istanbul on Thursday. That, for the first time, calls Putin’s bluff should the Russian despot fail to turn up for the talks. No less important, it also should demonstrate yet again to Mr Trump and the world that it is not Ukraine but Russia that is standing in the way of an end to the Ukrainian nightmare. The stakes in whatever occurs in Istanbul could not be higher. As Mr Trump put it in his Truth Social post: “At least they (events in Turkey) will be able to determine whether a deal is possible, and if not, European leaders and the US will know where everything stands and can proceed accordingly!” He added: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin.” Such doubt is a wise riposte given Putin’s persistent refusal to agree to a ceasefire and the indications he gave during his 2am news conference at the Kremlin on Sunday when, as The Times’s Russian specialist, Marc Bennetts, reported, “he showed he will accept no less than Zelensky’s capitulation and swathes of territory”. Putin’s rejection of the ceasefire proposed by Mr Zelensky and backed solidly by European leaders, and insistence that any negotiations should address the “root causes” of the war, Bennetts said, was “Kremlinese” for “at the very least, the removal of President Zelensky’s pro-Western government and legally binding agreement from NATO that Ukraine will never be allowed to join and will reduce its army to just 50,000 troops. It is also likely to be a reference to Russia’s longstanding demand that Ukraine should surrender Crimea and four regions in its east and south, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that the Kremlin does not even control.”

It is in that Russian intransigence that lies the real roadblock standing in the way of Mr Trump’s peace hopes for Ukraine, and the sooner he accepts that reality the better it will be for perceptions of his presidency. It is all very well to constantly bash pro-Western, democratically elected Mr Zelensky, as Mr Trump does. But Thursday in Istanbul – and whether Putin does show up to confront Mr Zelensky – holds the prospect of providing a rare, much needed moment of clarity about where responsibility for the horrifying ongoing bloodbath in Ukraine really lies.