Xi’s timely warning to Putin

Vladimir Putin would be foolish to ignore Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s stern warning against the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict in Ukraine. As the first “rebuke” of its kind by the Chinese President since Mr Putin invaded Ukraine in February, Mr Xi’s statement, made during a meeting in Beijing last Friday with visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, marks a potentially significant change of tone by China. It is a departure from the tacit support it has consistently given Moscow over the past nine months.

According to Xinhua, the official Chinese government news agency, and Mr Scholz, the first leader of a major Western nation to visit China since the start of the pandemic, Mr Xi said the international community should “oppose the use of or the threat to use nuclear weapons (in the conflict), advocate that nuclear weapons cannot be used and that nuclear wars must not be fought, and prevent a nuclear crisis in Eurasia”.

It may be, as Francesca Ghiretti, of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin said, that “opposing the use of nuclear weapons and threats (by Mr Putin to use them) is a low-hanging fruit and low-cost statement to achieve international approval and positive spill-over for the German-China relationship, and perhaps that with the EU, too”. But that does not diminish the significance of the Chinese leader’s warning at a critical stage of the conflict, with Mr Putin facing defeat by advancing Ukrainian forces in the port city of Kherson. The situation is dire from Russia’s perspective. Mr Putin has authorised the departure of thousands of civilians seeking refuge elsewhere. Following similar defeats in recent months, Mr Putin warned of possible recourse to the stockpile of 2000 tactical nuclear weapons Western experts believe he has stored across Russia, including at sites close to Ukraine. His rhetoric has alarmed Western leaders, who fear Mr Putin could seek to reverse his army’s ignominious defeats by detonating a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Mr Xi’s statement suggests he has the same concerns, despite the hypocrisy of his statement while doing nothing to impede North Korean despot Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitions.

Mr Xi is in a better position than any other world leader to influence Mr Putin to step back from the precipice. He must leave his fellow tyrant in no doubt that if he used nuclear weapons, some of Russia’s most committed friends will turn against him. It is up to Mr Xi whether his timely warning comes with the pressure needed to persuade Mr Putin that Beijing means business in seeking to avoid a nuclear conflagration.