Xi’s hard line on reuniting Taiwan with ‘motherland’

If Western nations were seeking signs that Chinese ruler Xi Jinping wanted steadier, more mature relationships with them, his speech to the Chinese Communist Party Congress on Sunday put paid to such ideas. “Wolf warrior” foreign policy and China’s military build-up are here to stay. Amid a sea of red, under a giant hammer-and-sickle emblem, the general secretary’s speech was about further strengthening Chinese power in the world and tightening control by the Communist Party domestically. On Taiwan, the likeliest flashpoint for war with the US and its allies, Mr Xi insisted “the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved’’. Those remarks drew the loudest applause from 2300 comrades in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. While claiming to want “peaceful reunification’’, an option the Taiwanese have made clear they will not countenance, Mr Xi said he would “never promise to give up the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures”. The wheels of history were rolling towards China’s reunification and rejuvenation, he said. Mr Xi’s lauding of China achieving “comprehensive control’’ over Hong Kong, putting it in the hands of “patriots’’ and turning it from “chaos to governance’’, underlined his disdain for his predecessors’ promises and how worthless any pledge of “one nation, two systems’’ would be for the Taiwanese.

Control, domination and authoritarianism were significant themes of the speech. Chinese people, Mr Xi said, “must strengthen our sense of hardship, adhere to the bottom-line thinking, be prepared for danger in times of peace, prepare for a rainy day, and be ready to withstand major tests of high winds and high waves’’. While not mentioning the US by name, he said China needed to be “mindful of potential dangers, be prepared to deal with worst-case scenarios … and even dangerous storms on our journey ahead’’.

On the domestic front, heavy Covid restrictions, sometimes enforced with violence, have exacerbated China’s economic problems. In a one-party state, addressing the elite of a party of 96 million members that controls 1.4 billion people, Mr Xi got away with claiming the restrictions had “protected people’s safety and health’’. He gave no signs of intending to improve domestic civil liberties or relax censorship and surveillance of the population. US television networks covering the event found their broadcasts, available on websites in China, were blacked out as soon as they switched from Mr Xi to reports and commentary about issues in China.

Mr Xi, 69, whose third consecutive term in office is expected to be announced next Sunday, promised a new era of “common prosperity” in which the party would exercise greater control over private capital and distribute China’s wealth more evenly. Unlike his predecessor, whose freeing up of the economy unleashed impressive growth, his more restrictive approach has unnerved entrepreneurs in China and overseas investors. The Chinese economy is in deep trouble. Choreographed spectacles like the Congress make it easy to gloss over problems that would be aired robustly at political party conferences in Western nations. That does not alter the fact that youth unemployment in China is about 20 per cent. Property values are in the doldrums. The ageing population, brought on by years of the harsh one-child policy, now abandoned, is a serious problem. The World Bank expects China’s GDP growth to slow sharply to 2.8 per cent this year, from 8.1 per cent in 2021. The dramatic slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy is adding to international economic concerns. Mr Xi had few answers.

It would be in China’s economic interest to resume normal trade with nations such as Australia but the ruling regime is evidently more interested in coercion through unjust trade restrictions, occasional incidences of hostage diplomacy and extending its influence in developing states through financial largesse and debt diplomacy.

Mr Xi lauded the approach used during his first decade in power, boasting “China’s international influence, appeal and power to shape the world has significantly increased”. On the eve of his third five-year term, which some believe could be extended further to several more five-year terms, Mr Xi offered no signs of moderating his approach in the Asia-Pacific region, including the South China Sea.

Despite unprecedented aggression and growth of the People’s Liberation Army and military hardware under his watch, he insisted the PLA needed to improve “combat preparedness”. He is head of China’s military as well as the CCP and head of state.

From Australia’s perspective, Mr Xi’s address did nothing to warrant any changes in this nation’s foreign and defence policies and priorities. Relationships and alliances such as ANZUS, AUKUS, the Quad and the Five Eyes intelligence network will remain key to our security.