Xi’s chance to encourage peace

After brokering last week’s rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is no surprise Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly is hastening to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow and hold a videoconference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. But if Mr Xi has genuine ambitions to be a credible peacemaker rather than Mr Putin’s cynical “no limits” ally in the Ukraine imbroglio, he is going to have to do far more to compel Russia to end its lawless onslaught against Kyiv’s sovereignty. The reality is that all the communist regime in Beijing has done, and has not done, since Mr Putin launched his invasion a year ago has served to amplify perceptions of China as a key supporter and facilitator of Mr Putin’s blood-soaked dictatorship and monstrous war crimes.

The expectation is that in Moscow and in his video meeting with Mr Zelensky, Mr Xi will be peddling the 12-point so-called peace plan Beijing published last month to coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. But as the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Alex Bristow concluded, the plan is no more than “a cynical attempt” by China to help Mr Putin, hamper support for Ukraine, bolster Beijing’s image in the global south and distract from the reality of growing Chinese support to Moscow.

Intelligence provided by the Biden administration indicates China is preparing to provide Mr Putin with the lethal weapons he desperately needs. That adds to perceptions that descriptions of Beijing’s stance in the conflict as “pro-Russian neutrality” fall well short of the mark. Vital diplomatic and economic backing for Moscow by Beijing is closer to the reality. It may be that China has played a role in warning Mr Putin against resorting to nuclear weapons. But it clearly has not done nearly enough to dissuade the Russian despot from the senseless course he is on. Beijing also has been quick to take advantage of sanctions imposed on Moscow by buying cheap Russian oil and gaining other economic advantages.

The protracted battle for what remains of the mostly obliterated city of Bakhmut is a heartening sign that, more than a year on, Mr Putin remains seriously bogged down in his imperial onslaught against Ukraine. Mr Zelensky’s forces have shown astonishing courage and determination against enormous odds. It may be, as US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Monday, that Bakhmut is now “more of symbolic value than … strategic and operational value”. But the grit and defiance being shown by Ukraine’s forces should leave Kyiv’s Western allies in no doubt about what their support for Mr Zelensky’s struggle has achieved. The battle for Bakhmut also should leave Mr Xi, as he prepares to speak to Mr Putin and Mr Zelensky, in no doubt about the need for China to compel the Russian tyrant to come to his senses. If he does not use the undoubted influence he has, Mr Xi may find he has backed the wrong horse in Ukraine. His misguided “no limits” alliance with Mr Putin will have created substantial new problems for China itself.