Xi puts regional peace in dire straits over Taiwan

Almost nothing about China’s massively over-the-top response to the less than 24 hours US House of Representatives Speaker, 82-year-old Nancy Pelosi, spent in Taiwan makes much rational sense. It shows just how dangerously unreliable, incoherent and incomprehensible the communist nation under Xi Jinping’s dictatorship has become as a reasonable interlocutor in maintaining what passes for peace in our region. In a statement on Friday, Beijing ended all future dialogue between its military commanders and the US – dialogue that has proved vital to keeping communication open to co-ordinate air and sea operations, particularly in the South China Sea, especially to prevent unintentional flare-ups when warships are operating close to each other.

The statement also terminated future Chinese co-operation on dealing with narcotics, crime and climate change, a move that serves only to show how superficial and meaningless was its commitment to the issue anyway. But it was Beijing’s bellicose “wolf warrior” attack on Saturday targeted at Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, like its days of relentless military aggression, which showed most starkly just how profoundly inflamed and dangerous the warlike invective following Ms Pelosi’s visit has become. For 50 years the mutual understanding between successive Chinese leaders and Washington was that Beijing would await peaceful reunification while the US continued to recognise a One China policy and maintain “strategic ambiguity” about defending Taiwan.

Probably with an eye to the all-important, five-yearly Chinese Communist Party Congress expected in November, Mr Xi is doubling down on his nationalist rhetoric and his goal of unifying China on his presidential watch. By any standards, Senator Wong’s joint statement with Mr Yoshimasa and Mr Blinken was measured and reasonable. Rightly, after reaffirming their commitment to maintaining peace and security across the Taiwan Strait, the three foreign ministers labelled China’s unprecedented show of military power surrounding Taiwan as “disproportionate and destabilising”. With good reason they expressed deep concern about “the risk of miscalculation” so obviously inherent in the Chinese exercises. “Australia is deeply concerned about the launch of ballistic missiles by China into waters around Taiwan’s coastline,” Senator Wong reportedly told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh. “This is a serious matter for the region, including for our close partner Japan. It is in all our interests to have a region at peace and not in conflict. Australia does not want to see any unilateral change to the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. There is no change to Australia’s bipartisan One China policy.” Yet for their perfectly measured and reasonable joint statement Senator Wong, Mr Yoshimasa and Mr Blinken were lambasted in the statement by the Chinese embassy in Canberra. “It is absolutely unacceptable for the finger pointing on China’s justified actions to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity,” it said.

In yet another inversion of reality it claimed China is “the victim of political provocation from the US”. The Chinese statement warned “the One China principle is a solemn commitment by successive Australian governments … it should be strictly abided by and fully honoured”; this despite repeated reaffirmations of the policy by Senator Wong and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The lesson of Beijing’s ranting and raving is clear, and it is one that must be heeded in the dangerous days that lie ahead, especially in the run-up to the CCP Congress. It is almost certain, as US intelligence officials have told The Wall Street Journal, that the Xi communist dictatorship has advanced its timetable for reunification from perhaps later this decade to maybe as little as 18 months. No one other than Mr Xi probably knows for sure. For the US and its allies, including Australia, the need is urgent not just for diplomacy aimed at maintaining good relations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but also for a policy of bolstering Taiwan so it can defend itself against the coercive Chinese military power on display in recent days. The period since Ms Pelosi’s visit shows the US and its allies have no time to waste if they want to deter a cataclysmic outcome in the crisis.