World recognises stronger hand at the tiller in the US

More than two months before Donald Trump takes office, his election is already causing sands to shift in the international body politic. Just a day after prosecutors in the US charged an alleged Iranian “asset”, Farhad Shakeri, over a plot to assassinate Mr Trump, Iran called on the US president-elect to adopt new policies towards it and reassess the policy of “maximum pressure” he employed against the theocracy during his first term. The call by Iran’s Vice-President for Strategic Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, might have a smidgen of credibility if he and his leaders indicated they were prepared to stop Iranian support for its terror proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels and back down in their existential war against Israel. Such turnarounds obviously would take time and for now Iran knows where it stands. Mr Trump was clear on election day: “My terms are very easy. They can’t have a nuclear weapon”. During Mr Trump’s first term, his punitive sanctions targeting Iran’s oil export revenues and international banking transactions impoverished the militant theocracy. As The Wall Street Journal reports, Mr Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions against Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy to undercut Tehran’s support of violent Middle East proxies and its nuclear program. That is the right strategy. Iran took Joe Biden’s interest in reviving Barack Obama’s nuclear deal as a sign of weakness and stepped up its support for terror and its nuclear program.

Mr Trump’s election also appears to have prompted authorities in Qatar to bring forward a move that has been in the works: the closure of Hamas’s office in the emirate after 12 years. On Saturday, Qatar suspended its role as a key mediator for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release until Hamas and Israel showed “seriousness” in relation to the issue. With truce talks deadlocked, the Hamas political office “no longer serves its purpose”, diplomatic sources told journalists. US allies, including Australia, also are marking out their ground.

In a speech to the Australian Institute of International Affairs on Monday, Jim Chalmers will emphasise the fact Australia’s relationship with the US, under presidents and prime ministers from all sides, is strong and enduring. It is built on shared values and interests and deep engagement, not partisan or even ideological ties.

Mr Trump has an opportunity to put his stamp on US foreign policy and the nation’s international standing for the better. As former Department of Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo argues, an opportunity exists to create a “golden age of American power, where a self-interested US, working with equally self-interested allies and partners, and not embarrassed to wield that power, accomplishes a world-changing quadrella: thwart China, flip Russia, contain Iran and isolate North Korea. If it can accomplish this sweep of the grand chessboard of Eurasia, the US will be not just powerful but great again.” There is always the chance that Mr Trump will make such a mess of things that his revolution will be short-lived, Greg Sheridan pointed out in Inquirer. But the president-elect has an opportunity, if he governs well, to produce permanent change in the world order.

As a starting point, in the current strategic environment it will be a positive development if he insists, as he did during his first term, that US allies, including in NATO, take greater responsibility and increase their own defence spending. But sound advice will be vital and it is disappointing that former secretary of state Mike Pompeo will not be joining the Trump cabinet. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin says he is ready to hold talks with Mr Trump. This will be the president-elect’s first major challenge. Almost three years on from the start of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine that has caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands of troops, on both sides, and Ukrainian civilians, Mr Trump says his focus is peace, not territory. He will fail dismally, however, and set up a reputation for weakness if Mr Putin walks away from any deal with an advantage. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people deserve far better than a “dirty deal’’ with Mr Putin that would put European security on a more precarious footing. When the West is under great challenge from the BRICS group and the Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis, US strength is the West’s strongest asset. Mr Trump needs to build on it and use it well.