US-Sino cold war could heat up

Tuesday marked the anniversary of the outbreak of the Great War, in which Australia paid a heavy price. Far from being the war to “end all wars”, that gruesome conflict sowed the seeds of World War II. And the consequences of both continue to echo. In 1914, few considered the Great War inevitable. One of the most influential tracts among politicians, economists and military strategists was Norman Angell’s The Great Illusion. The mercantile links between Britain and Germany made war obsolete and unthinkable, he argued. Yet war came.

Today, many cling to the comforting illusion that the globalised economy eliminates the risks of war between major powers. John Howard’s pithy observation that Australia need not choose between its history and its geography contained a grain of truth when he espoused it. Since Mr Howard left office in 2007, however, rivalry for regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific has intensified. Since the ascension of Xi Jinping to the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese assertiveness has given way to strident bellicosity. China’s ambition to displace our US ally as the regional hegemon has become undeniable, as shown by its rhetoric and ruthless conduct towards numerous nations in our region. While the West has been preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic, China has escalated provocations. From probing the Taiwanese air defence system to sinking a Vietnamese fishing vessel, harassing a Malaysian oil rig and border clashes with India, China has displayed alarming contempt for global opinion. Its militarisation of artificial features and disputed reefs in the South China Sea has continued, flouting the 2016 repudiation of its claims by the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

Those familiar with the communist regime have always recognised that China’s primary strategic ambition is reclamation of the so-called “wayward province” of Taiwan. Since the last Taiwan Strait confrontation in 1996, China’s military modernisation has been directed towards increasing the hazard for US maritime forces deployed to support Taiwan. Mr Xi’s message has been ominous and clear: Taiwan must be brought to heel sooner rather than later. On Tuesday, Paul Dibb, one of the most influential architects of Australia’s post-war security policy, warned in our newspaper of the mounting danger of war between the US and China over Taiwan. Professor Dibb implied that Australian neutrality in such a conflict might remain an option. Such a choice is an illusion. In addition to the joint facility at Pine Gap, our vast continent hosts crucial ground stations including Honeysuckle Creek outside Canberra and Cooby Creek north of Toowoomba. These constitute an indispensable component of US space operations, which enable its multi-domain operations including its nuclear submarines and bombers. In the event of a war between China and the US over Taiwan we are already on the frontline.

Although not committing to freedom of navigation operations in the disputed zones of the South China Sea, Australia agreed at AUSMIN talks last week to host more US logistics and fuel stocks in Darwin, outside the current range of Chinese ballistic missiles. Last month the US cast aside its vigilant neutrality in relation to China’s disputes with six littoral states in the disputed zone. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo branded China’s expansionist claims in the area “completely unlawful”. Belatedly, the US is also matching its sharpened rhetoric with actions. It has deployed two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea. And amid the deepening crisis the Trump administration has almost doubled aerial surveillance operations in the South China Sea. Democrat challenger Joe Biden has been critical of Donald Trump’s handling of the US-China relationship. But voters need to hear how Mr Biden would address the most important strategic issue he would face as US president and leader of the free world. He has spoken about China only in general terms and has big questions to answer, as Gerald F. Seib writes in World. Amid rising tensions on both sides of the Pacific, the three months lead-up to the US election on November 3 could make the difference between peace and conflict in our region.