US stability helps China, India and Japan to rise

Perhaps the more things change in foreign affairs, the more they stay the same. We are living in turbulent times with strategic flashpoints in the Middle East and north Asia; social, economic and political upheaval in Europe; Islamist extremism persistent in the Middle East, Africa, Western liberal democracies and our region; and the rising economic and military power of China putting the rest of the world on edge. Australia sits at the intersection of the Indian and Pacific oceans where East meets West and the past meets the future. Opportunities are boundless but challenges are immense. As always, we look to secure a future in our region and globally that is prosperous, secure and free. For all the fresh difficulties and passing players in these endeavours, the fundamental values, relationships and interests are not so changeable. We must be flexible and alive to shifting tides but biased in favour of stability to capitalise on the work of the past and minimise the risk of missteps.

To this end the overarching take on the government’s framing of the new foreign policy white paper, to be released today, and the opposition’s early response is reassurance about a sense of continuity and striving towards a semblance of bipartisanship. Just as dramatic shifts in foreign policy are to be avoided, so too it is best in our two-party system to avoid partisan jousting over foreign policy. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop gave opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong the chance to address senior diplomats during the white paper consultations and Senator Wong makes clear in our pages today that Labor will take up parts of the paper and incorporate them into its own thinking in foreign affairs.

Yet beneath this familiar and useful veneer of co-operation on foreign policy there are also time-honoured and often understated differences that are a constant source of nuanced debate. In a speech about the relationship between Australia and the US in the “age of disruption”, Senator Wong has gone through the regular ritual of reassuring the foreign policy establishment and the public about Labor’s commitment to the US alliance. This is particularly important for the South Australian senator because she is a member of Labor’s socialist left faction, often the hotbed of anti-US posturing within Labor. Senator Wong committed to the breadth of the US economic, social, political and security relationship, although she was at pains to stress the consultative nature of the ANZUS Treaty. Spooked by the unorthodox and disruptive style of Donald Trump, Senator Wong stressed the relationship was “not a function of the personalities of our respective leaders” but was deeper and more institutional. Right though she is, any shift in US policy under President Trump has been widely overstated. Apart from his posturing on trade, enacted by pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and his withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, the President’s foreign policy aims, if not his rhetoric, have been largely consistent with his predecessors. It is too early to say whether his stronger language and threatening posture in the Middle East, north Asia and Europe will deliver better outcomes or greater instability. Labor needs to get over its antipathy towards President Trump and focus on goals such as dealing with North Korea, eradicating Islamic State from the Middle East and our region, helping NATO become more robust in Europe, encouraging China to respect the rule of law and constraining Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Ms Bishop’s white paper assessment that the promise of rising prosperity brings attendant problems through contested spheres of influence and the flexing of military and strategic muscle is perceptive. The growing wealth of China, India and countries across Southeast Asia is an overwhelmingly good thing for Australia’s economic and strategic interests. But it means we need to deal with rising levels of military spending and tensions such as naval rivalries between India and China. While our economic gains from the rise of China are understood, the emergent opportunities in India have attracted less attention. Broader trade with India and consideration of its strategic ambitions will be important as an economic hedge against China and help manage changing power dynamics of our region.

Central to all this for the foreseeable future will be the security guarantee of the US. It has underwritten prosperity in east Asia since World War II and it is clearly in the interests of Australia, Japan, India and Southeast Asia for US security and diplomatic engagement to be as robust into the future as it has been for the past 70 years. The Foreign Minister points out that while the US remains the only true superpower, “we have never been in an era where there has been a powerful China, Japan and India” at the same time. This could create conditions for unrivalled prosperity. But it also calls for deft diplomacy and a clear sense of our own priorities in support of democracy, trade, security, freedom and fairness.