Urban chaos is a Trump card

It is no surprise Donald Trump spent much of the Labour Day long weekend tweeting grim warnings about the “anarchy and terrorism” besetting cities across the US. The 100th consecutive day of unrelenting street violence in Portland, Oregon and elsewhere — led by far-left Antifa and Black Lives Matter militants — provided him with the best opportunity yet to use his strong law-and-order theme to turn the tide in his re-election campaign.

The result, as Cameron Stewart reported, is America is no longer focused almost exclusively on the politically damaging mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and its dire economic consequences, which have sustained Democrat challenger Joe Biden’s lead in the polls. There is little doubt that mainstream Americans, whatever their race, are appalled by anarchy masquerading as protest and by the failure of the authorities to protect citizens and property. Even so, it remains to be seen whether Mr Trump’s portrayal of mostly Democrat-run cities as awash with violence will be enough to overcome Mr Biden’s current seven-point lead.

Mr Biden is likely to pay a price if he fails to distance himself more credibly from this violence and intimidation. In his first campaign speech after emerging from his basement last week, he did condemn violence, accusing Mr Trump of using scare tactics to fan the flames of racial unrest. “Rioting is not protesting. Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting. None of this is protesting. It’s lawlessness, plain and simple,” Mr Biden said. But just as “progressive” media outlets have strained credulity with their constant refrain of “mostly peaceful protests”, the Democratic convention skittishly avoided any reference to the mainly BLM-linked violence. Mr Biden had no trouble condemning “far right” groups, “white supremacists” and “vigilantes”, yet could not bring himself to say anything about the culpability of Antifa and BLM groups in provoking and sustaining this climate of fear, which no democratic society can tolerate.

Mr Biden’s timidity no doubt results in part from his reliance on the far left in the Democratic Party led by senator Bernie Sanders, whose support secured him the presidential nomination. Its backing is crucial to Mr Biden’s prospects of winning. But so is the support of middle-of-the-road moderates deeply worried by the urban violence. As Democrat former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell warned: “What we were afraid of is moderates saying ‘I hate Donald Trump, but I need to be safe. I have to hold my nose and vote for him’.”

All the remarkable political gut instincts Mr Trump showed in winning in 2016 are again in play. He moved swiftly last week to halt the use of a so-called critical race theory in US federal agencies, targeting the ideology that seeks to justify violence and extremism. This “anti-racist training” with its dogma of “white supremacy” is intellectually bankrupt and counter-productive because it only deepens racial polarisation.

It’s an obstacle to hard-headed reforms in education and social policy that can propel black achievement. Mr Trump’s advisers have made two political calculations, both likely to be correct. The mainstream will reject critical race theory once its role in extremist rhetoric and violence is understood. And the Democratic Party of today will find it difficult to dissociate itself from ideology of this kind because it has become an article of faith for many of its most energetic activists.