Turnbull’s support melts amid citizenship shambles

After a dismal decade of government characterised by instability and underachievement, the credibility of both sides of Australian politics has melted down under the heat of the citizenship crisis. If Malcolm Turnbull survives as Prime Minister to host Christmas drinks at The Lodge or Kirribilli House, he might consider himself fortunate, although the start of next year could be no less difficult depending on whether further citizenship problems emerge among Coalition MPs. Mr Turnbull must rue the day in September 2015 that he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for toppling Tony Abbott. Today’s Newspoll, the 23rd in a row showing the Coalition trailing Labor, will ratchet up leadership tensions. As well as falling a further percentage point behind the opposition, which leads the Coalition 55-45 on the two-party preferred vote, the poll represents a poor result for Mr Turnbull personally. His lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has collapsed from 17 points in September to just two points. Both leaders’ satisfaction ratings remain deep in negative territory, for good reason. Now Mr Turnbull faces another stern test of his leadership over the protection of religious freedoms arising from an anticipated Yes vote in the same-sex marriage postal plebiscite.

The citizenship crisis was not of Mr Turnbull’s making or that of the Opposition Leader. But neither has managed it well, along with many other issues. While Mr Turnbull faces a couple of precarious weeks in the House of Representatives, it is Mr Shorten whose double standards are being writ large. Better late than never, the Liberal MP for Bennelong, John Alexander, realised he was ineligible to sit in parliament, did the decent thing and resigned. Not so the Labor MP for Braddon, Justine Keay, who admits she was a British citizen when she was elected last year. If Mr Shorten doesn’t make her resign, the Coalition will refer her and fellow Labor MP Susan Lamb, whose status is in doubt, to the High Court. After months of insisting Labor MPs were squeaky clean as regards their citizenship because of Labor’s supposedly superior checking processes, Mr Shorten has been caught out. On top of Labor’s high-tax, big-spending policies that would damage the economy in a way that would take years to repair, Mr Shorten’s integrity is now in question. No wonder some voters and commentators are openly wishing for the stability and efficiency of the Howard era.

Doubts about Mr Turnbull among socially conservative voters and former Coalition supporters is set to come into play when a proposed same-sex marriage bill enshrining far-reaching religious and free speech protections is taken to the Coalition partyroom. The new bill, revealed in The Australian today and to be released by Victorian Liberal senator James Paterson, who voted Yes in the postal plebiscite, includes wide-ranging shield laws covering non-religious marriage celebrants, businesses, educators, charities and parents opposed to same-sex marriage. It will prompt a showdown with supporters of the bill sponsored by West Australian Liberal senator Dean Smith, which offers only limited religious protections. Yesterday, on Sunday Agenda on Sky News, Senator Smith suggested religious freedom could be addressed through separate legislation that could arise from the ongoing parliamentary inquiry into freedom of religion or belief, chaired by Kevin Andrews.

In anticipation of the Yes side winning the plebiscite when results are announced on Wednesday, the bill to be released by Senator Paterson changes the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples. It would also protect anyone from being forced to supply goods to a same-sex wedding “against their sincerely held beliefs”. Anti-detriment laws would prevent government agencies taking adverse action against a person who supported traditional marriage. The charitable status of organisations upholding traditional marriage would also be protected, as would Christian schools and institutions teaching traditional marriage. Parents would be able to remove their children from classes that conflicted with their values, such as the controversial Safe Schools program.

The bill would cover many concerns raised by the No side and others. It accords with former deputy prime minister John Anderson’s argument in The Weekend Australian that all Australians, and not only “professional religionists’’, were entitled to freedom of conscience. In August, Newspoll found 62 per cent of Australians supported legal guarantees for freedom of conscience, belief and ­religion if same-sex marriage were legislated. Just 18 per cent disagreed and 20 per cent were uncommitted. The debate now will be about how far those measures extend. The Nationals are likely to favour widespread protections. As The Australian has argued, such matters should have been decided before the postal survey. Wherever Mr Turnbull stands, he risks alienating colleagues. The debate, especially if same-sex marriage is to be legislated by Christmas, will be intense and show the need for leadership that unites progressives and conservatives. That will be a challenge for Mr Turnbull.