Turnbull must frame the election around his plan

Economic management is bound to dominate the campaign.

One week into Malcolm Turnbull’s 103-day countdown to a possible double dissolution election, there has been less focus on the core issues than we might have expected. Last Monday, when the Prime Minister audaciously placed two bills aimed at improving trade union accountability at the fulcrum of the national debate, we might have expected those potential election triggers to figure prominently in public discussions. But the government has failed to promote or encourage this argument. Nor has it been able to provide more details around the economic management issues that are bound to be pivotal in any election campaign. Instead we have seen distractions about the extent to which the government is reliant upon Tony Abbott’s legacy, as well as internal dissent about whether the Prime Minister is working sufficiently closely with his Treasurer, Scott Morrison.

Just how damaging the former prime minister might be in the lead-up to the election is yet to be seen but we know enough to conclude that unless he adopts a lower profile he is likely to hurt the Coalition’s prospects. Rightly or wrongly, Mr Abbott was an unpopular prime minister, so the marginal seats campaigning his supporters have foreshadowed can only have limited direct electoral benefit and the perception of disunity it foments certainly will not help Mr Turnbull. This is not to suggest there can’t be a role for Mr Abbott or that he has no right to defend his legacy — it is just to reflect the political reality. And it is one that Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull need to deal with together or individually, publicly and privately, if the Coalition is to have a successful campaign.

The Easter break notwithstanding, it must concern the government that its public advocacy isn’t directing the national conversation. As The Australian has argued repeatedly, Mr Turnbull and Mr Morrison would better shape the debate by releasing more policy, particularly on reforming the economy or repairing the budget, in order to set the agenda and create a point of difference from the fiscal fumbling of the Abbott years. A double dissolution on July 2 is by no means certain but even if the Senate crossbenchers capitulate and pass the union accountability measures we could still reasonably expect an election to be called for August. So the time for Mr Turnbull to demonstrate the competence of his administration and outline its direction is compressing.

The analysis of Newspoll carried in our pages today demonstrates that while the Coalition retains an election-winning lead — a standing it fell short of for more than a year until the end of Mr Abbott’s leadership — it has been losing ground. On current polling the government would lose about half of its majority at an election, even though it is preferred as economic manager and Mr Turnbull has a strong lead as preferred prime minister. This suggests that voters want, or even expect, Mr Turnbull to succeed but haven’t yet been excited by the prescription he has outlined. With his double dissolution strategy, the Prime Minister seized the day — now he must seize the agenda.